Next track point prediction using a flexible strategy of subgraph learning on road networks

Accurately predicting the next track point of vehicle travel is crucial for various Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) applications, such as travel behavior studies, traffic control, and traffic congestion monitoring. Recent works on trajectory prediction follow a paradigm that first represents the raw trajectory and subsequently makes predictions based on that representation. Currently, trajectory representation methods tend to project trajectory points to road networks by map matching and represent trajectories based on the representation of matched roads. However, precisely matching trajectories to roads is a challenge in ITS, as the matching precision is greatly affected by the quality of the trajectory. Meanwhile, since it is difficult to discern whether trajectory matching results are accurate or confounded, how to effectively utilize this type of uncertain geographic context information is also a challenge, which is defined as the Uncertain Geographic Context Problem (UGCoP) in geographic information science. Therefore, we propose a flexible strategy of subgraph learning, referred to as SLM, for predicting the next track point of vehicles. Specifically, a subgraph generation module is first proposed to extract topology contextual information of the roads around historical trajectory points. Secondly, a subgraph learning module is designed to learn rich spatial and temporal features from generated subgraphs. Finally, the extracted spatiotemporal features will be fed into a prediction module to predict the next track points of vehicles on road networks. Our model enables the effective utilization of uncertain geographic context information of trajectories on road networks while avoiding the error brought by map matching. Extensive experiments based on trajectory datasets in two different cities confirm the effectiveness of our approach.