Multivariate parametric spatiotemporal models for county level breast cancer survival data

Xiaoping Jin, Brad Carlin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

17 Scopus citations

Abstract

In clustered survival settings where the clusters correspond to geographic regions, biostatisticians are increasingly turning to models with spatially distributed random effects. These models begin with spatially oriented frailty terms, but may also include further region-level terms in the parametrization of the baseline hazards or various covariate effects (as in a spatially-varying coefficients model). In this paper, we propose a multivariate conditionally autoregressive (MCAR) model as a mixing distribution for these random effects, as a way of capturing correlation across both the regions and the elements of the random effect vector for any particular region. We then extend this model to permit analysis of temporal cohort effects, where we use the term "temporal cohort" to mean a group of subjects all of whom were diagnosed with the disease of interest (and thus, entered the study) during the same time period (say, calendar year). We show how our spatiotemporal model may be efficiently fit in a hierarchical Bayesian framework implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computational techniques. We illustrate our approach in the context of county-level breast cancer data from 22 annual cohorts of women living in the state of Iowa, as recorded by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Hierarchical model comparison using the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), as well as maps of the fitted county-level effects, reveal the benefit of our approach.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)5-27
Number of pages23
JournalLifetime Data Analysis
Volume11
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 2005

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The work of both authors was supported in part by NIH Grant 2–R01–ES07750. The authors are grateful to Profs. Sudipto Banerjee and Beth Virnig for extensive discussions and assistance with computing issues and the SEER database, all of which were essential to this project’s completion.

Keywords

  • Cancer survival data
  • Geographic Information System (GIS)
  • Lattice data
  • Markov chain Monte Carlo methods
  • Proportional hazards
  • Random effects model

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