TY - JOUR
T1 - Mortality and Coronary Heart Disease Among Men Studied for 23 Years
AU - Keys, Ancel
AU - Taylor, Henry Longstreet
AU - Blackburn, Henry
AU - Brozek, Josef
AU - Anderson, Joseph T.
AU - Simonson, Ernst
PY - 1971/8
Y1 - 1971/8
N2 - Twenty-year coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence is analyzed for 279 men, CHD-free at the ages of 47 through 57 years and characterized by three examinations before 20 annual follow-up examinations. Sixty men developed CHD, 42 dying or suffering infarction. Among 20 entry characteristics, three had major predictive power, especially for CHD death or infarction: cold pressor test, a high level of serum cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure. Smoking and relative weight seemed unimportant. Major CHD incidence was proportional to cholesterol to the 3.4 power. Five-variable multiple logistic analysis permitted placement of men into deciles of estimated risk differing more than tenfold in CHD incidence. The combination of only cholesterol and systolic pressure was nearly as good. The multiple logistic coefficients applied to five-year data on 1,287 men among whom 182 CHD developed in 182 yielded satisfactory agreement between observed and predicted distributions of CHD cases in classes of estimated risk.
AB - Twenty-year coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence is analyzed for 279 men, CHD-free at the ages of 47 through 57 years and characterized by three examinations before 20 annual follow-up examinations. Sixty men developed CHD, 42 dying or suffering infarction. Among 20 entry characteristics, three had major predictive power, especially for CHD death or infarction: cold pressor test, a high level of serum cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure. Smoking and relative weight seemed unimportant. Major CHD incidence was proportional to cholesterol to the 3.4 power. Five-variable multiple logistic analysis permitted placement of men into deciles of estimated risk differing more than tenfold in CHD incidence. The combination of only cholesterol and systolic pressure was nearly as good. The multiple logistic coefficients applied to five-year data on 1,287 men among whom 182 CHD developed in 182 yielded satisfactory agreement between observed and predicted distributions of CHD cases in classes of estimated risk.
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U2 - 10.1001/archinte.1971.00310200037002
DO - 10.1001/archinte.1971.00310200037002
M3 - Article
C2 - 5564199
AN - SCOPUS:0015105458
VL - 128
SP - 201
EP - 214
JO - Archives of internal medicine (Chicago, Ill. : 1908)
JF - Archives of internal medicine (Chicago, Ill. : 1908)
SN - 2168-6106
IS - 2
ER -