A substantial amount of attrition in cocaine dependence treatment studies occurs between the initial telephone contact and the first evaluative clinic visit. While decreasing the wait to first visit can significantly reduce pre-intake attrition (PIA), little is known about other factors that moderate delay tolerance for first clinic visit. The current report uses data from 833 subjects who completed a first-contact telephone interview prior to an intake evaluation visit for cocaine use treatment research. Hierarchical logistic regression was used to assess three successive models to predict PIA, with the most inclusive model testing interactions between delay interval and seven predictors: age, gender, treatment motivation, recency of cocaine, alcohol, and tobacco use, and self-reported depression. Consistent with previous reports, greater delay to first clinic visit predicted PIA. However, no evidence for the moderating role of the selected factors was found. Overall, the utility of the logistic models, built on basic demographic and psychiatric factors, was poor, as evaluated using receiver-operator characteristic curves. Alternative factors must be examined to identify predictors that will increase probability of initial enrolment in cocaine-dependence clinical trials.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
This research was supported by the NIDA grants DA-13333, DA-009262, DA-16305, DA-15433, DA-08654, DA-11216. We thank the participants for taking part in these studies.
Copyright 2008 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
- Prognostic modeling