Modeling the population health impact of incorporating a multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test to existing cancer screening among immunocompromised individuals

Chia Jie Tan, Sabrina Ilham, Connor Willis, Ashley Kim, Ze Cong, Diana Brixner, David Stenehjem

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Objective: To assess the screening efficiency of an multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test added to standard of care (SoC) screening, compared to SoC screening alone, among immunocompromised individuals, and to estimate the diagnostic workup costs associated with positive screening results. Methods: We estimated the potential impact of cancer screening among immunocompromised individuals aged 50–79 years within the University of Utah Health system who underwent a stem cell/solid organ transplant or were diagnosed with a primary or secondary immunodeficiency disorder between January 2000 and February 2018. We derived cancer incidence rates from the Huntsman Cancer Institute Tumor Registry, and screening performance of SoC screening and an MCED test from published literature. Outcomes of screening efficiency included the true-positive to false-positive (TP:FP) ratio, diagnostic yield (DY), and cancer detection rate (CDR) for SoC screening alone and an incremental MCED test. Scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: Among 4932 immunocompromised individuals aged 50–79 years, we estimated that 2595 tests would be done under SoC screening and assumed that all individuals received an additional MCED test. Adding an MCED test to SoC screening substantially improved screening efficiency (TP:FP = 1:1, DY = 5.15/1000 tests, CDR = 42.0%), compared to SoC screening alone (TP:FP = 1:99, DY = 1.23/1000 tests, CDR = 5.3%), assuming an MCED test with 100% uptake. Our findings were also robust to parameter uncertainty. Conclusion: Adding an MCED test to complement existing screening may be a highly efficient strategy to increase the detection of cancers among immunocompromised individuals. These results could help to improve cancer prevention and detection efforts among individuals with multiple cancer risk factors.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1577-1587
Number of pages11
JournalCurrent Medical Research and Opinion
Volume40
Issue number9
DOIs
StatePublished - 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Keywords

  • biomarkers
  • Early detection of cancer
  • immunocompromised host
  • neoplasms
  • population-level model

PubMed: MeSH publication types

  • Journal Article

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