Modeling the commute mode share of transit using continuous accessibility to jobs

Andrew Owen, David M. Levinson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

121 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper presents the results of an accessibility-based model of aggregate commute mode share, focusing on the share of transit relative to auto. It demonstrates the use of continuous accessibility - calculated continuously in time, rather than at a single of a few departure times - for the evaluation of transit systems. These accessibility calculations are accomplished using only publicly-available data sources. A binomial logic model is estimated which predicts the likelihood that a commuter will choose transit rather than auto for a commute trip based on aggregate characteristics of the surrounding area. Variables in this model include demographic factors as well as detailed accessibility calculations for both transit and auto. The mode achieves a ρ2 value of 0.597, and analysis of the results suggests that continuous accessibility of transit systems may be a valuable tool for use in modeling and forecasting.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)110-122
Number of pages13
JournalTransportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Volume74
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 1 2015

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2015 Elsevier Ltd.

Keywords

  • Accessibility
  • Mode choice
  • Mode share
  • Modeling
  • Public transit

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