TY - JOUR
T1 - Modeling current and future potential wintering distributions of eastern North American monarch butterflies
AU - Oberhauser, Karen
AU - Peterson, A. Townsend
PY - 2003/11/25
Y1 - 2003/11/25
N2 - Monarch butterflies overwinter in restricted areas in montane oyamel fir forests in central Mexico with specific microclimates that allow the butterflies to survive for up to 5 months. We use ecological niche modeling (ENM) to identify areas adequate for overwintering monarch colonies under both current and future climate scenarios. The ENM approach permits testing and validation of model predictivity, and yields quantitative, testable predictions regarding likely future climate change effects. Our models predicted monarch presence with a high degree of accuracy, and indicated that precipitation and diurnal temperature range were key environmental factors in making locations suitable for monarchs. When we projected monarch distribution onto future climate scenarios (Hadley Centre climate models), we found that conditions were likely to be inadequate across the entire current winter range, particularly owing to increased cool-weather precipitation that could cause increased mortality. This study applies ENM to understanding the seasonal dynamics of a migratory species under climate change, and uses ENM to identify key limiting environmental parameters in species' responses to climate change.
AB - Monarch butterflies overwinter in restricted areas in montane oyamel fir forests in central Mexico with specific microclimates that allow the butterflies to survive for up to 5 months. We use ecological niche modeling (ENM) to identify areas adequate for overwintering monarch colonies under both current and future climate scenarios. The ENM approach permits testing and validation of model predictivity, and yields quantitative, testable predictions regarding likely future climate change effects. Our models predicted monarch presence with a high degree of accuracy, and indicated that precipitation and diurnal temperature range were key environmental factors in making locations suitable for monarchs. When we projected monarch distribution onto future climate scenarios (Hadley Centre climate models), we found that conditions were likely to be inadequate across the entire current winter range, particularly owing to increased cool-weather precipitation that could cause increased mortality. This study applies ENM to understanding the seasonal dynamics of a migratory species under climate change, and uses ENM to identify key limiting environmental parameters in species' responses to climate change.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0345060893&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0345060893&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1073/pnas.2331584100
DO - 10.1073/pnas.2331584100
M3 - Article
C2 - 14612569
AN - SCOPUS:0345060893
SN - 0027-8424
VL - 100
SP - 14063
EP - 14068
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
IS - SUPPL. 2
ER -