Mapping the risks of the spread of peste des petits ruminants in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Sarsenbay K. Abdrakhmanov, Yersyn Y. Mukhanbetkaliyev, Akhmetzhan A. Sultanov, Gulzhan N. Yessembekova, Sergey N. Borovikov, Aidar Namet, Abdykalyk A. Abishov, Andres M. Perez, Fedor I. Korennoy

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Scopus citations


Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a viral transboundary disease seen in small ruminants, that causes significant damage to agriculture. This disease has not been previously registered in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK). This paper presents an assessment of the susceptibility of the RK's territory to the spread of the disease in the event of its importation from infected countries. The negative binomial regression model that was trained on the PPR outbreaks in China, was used to rank municipal districts in the RK in terms of PPR spread risk. The outbreak count per administrative district was used as a risk indicator, while a number of socio-economic, landscape, and climatic factors were considered as explanatory variables. Summary road length, altitude, the density of small ruminants, the maximum green vegetation fraction, cattle density, and the Engel coefficient were the most significant factors. The model demonstrated a good performance in training data (R2 = 0.69), and was transferred to the RK, suggesting a significantly lower susceptibility of this country to the spread of PPR. Hot spot analysis identified three clusters of districts at the highest risk, located in the western, eastern, and southern parts of Kazakhstan. As part of the study, a countrywide survey was conducted to collect data on the distribution of livestock populations, which resulted in the compilation of a complete geo-database of small ruminant holdings in the RK. The research results may be used to formulate a national strategy for preventing the importation and spread of PPR in Kazakhstan through targeted monitoring in high-risk areas.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2296-2305
Number of pages10
JournalTransboundary and Emerging Diseases
Issue number4
Early online dateJul 15 2021
StateE-pub ahead of print - Jul 15 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was conducted as part of a scientific research by the Agro-Industrial Complex under the Scientific-Technical program “Scientific basics of the veterinary wellbeing and food safety,” budgetary program #267, Research Project BR06249242.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Wiley-VCH GmbH.


  • ArcGIS
  • People's Republic of China
  • Republic of Kazakhstan
  • negative binomial regression
  • peste des petits ruminants
  • risk factors

PubMed: MeSH publication types

  • Journal Article


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