Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–18: a geospatial modelling study

Local Burden of Disease Household Air Pollution Collaborators

doi:10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00332-1

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–18: a geospatial modelling study

Local Burden of Disease Household Air Pollution Collaborators

Surgery

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

25 Scopus citations

Abstract

Background: More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels. Methods: We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution. Findings: Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000–257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution. Interpretation: Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	e1395-e1411
Journal	The Lancet Global Health
Volume	10
Issue number	10
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00332-1
State	Published - Oct 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
R Ancuceanu reports consultancy or speakers’ fees from UCB, Sandoz, Abbvie, Zentiva, Teva, Laropharm, CEGEDIM, Angelini, B Braun, Biessen Pharma, Hofigal, AstraZeneca, and Stadam. M L Bell reports grants or contracts from the US Environmental Protection Agency, National Institutes of Health, High Tide Foundation, Yale Climate Change and Health Center, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Environmental Defense Fund, Health Effects Institute and the Wellcome Trust, all as payments to their institution; consulting fees from the Environmental Protection Agency as personal payments for membership on the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, grant reviews, manuscript writing, external advisory committees, or educational events from Boston University, Korea University, the Organization of Teratology Information Specialists, the NIH, Health Canada, PAC-10, UK Research Institute, Harvard University, and the University of Montana; support for attending meetings or travel from Boston University, Harvard University, University of Illinois at Champaign, and the University of Texas; participation on a data safety monitoring board or advisory board with National Academies Panels and Committees; membership of Lancet Countdown, Fifth National Climate Assessment, Johns Hopkins University Deptartment of Environmental Health and Engineering Advisory Board, WHO Global Air Pollution and Health Technical Advisory group, and the US Environmental Protection Agency Clean Air Scientific Advisory Board. J M Castaldelli-Maia reports grants from the French National Institute for Cancer and Pfizer and consulting fees from L’Oreal for participation on international multidisciplinary scientific boards around skin conditions and mental wellness. A Deshpande reports consulting fees from Epidemiology Research & Methods. SMS Islam reports grants from the National Heart Foundation of Australia and from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. K Krishan reports non-financial support from UGC Centre of Advanced Study, CAS II, Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. P W Mahasha reports leadership or fiduciary roles or membership in the Federation of Infectious Diseases Societies of Southern Africa, the EU-Africa PerMed Consortium, the South African Society for Biochemistry and Molecular, the International Society for Infectious Diseases, the Global Burden of Disease Collaborator Network, the South African Society of Microbiology, the COVID-19 Clinical Research Coalition, the Scholars Academic and Scientific Society, and the South African Council for Natural Scientific Professions. S Mohammed reports support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and a fellowship grant from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. S B Munro reports stock in Invitae and other financial or non-financial interests as an employee of Invitae. T Pilgrim reports grants or contracts from Biotronik, Boston Scientific, and Edwards Lifesciences as personal payments; participation on a data safety monitoring board or advisory board with Highlife SAS on the Clinical Event Adjudication Committee; and other financial and non-financial interests with Boston Scientific and Medtronic for proctoring. M J Postma reports stock or stock options in Health-Ecore (25%) and Pharmacoeconomics Advice Groningen (100%). A Radfar reports financial or non-financial support from Avicenna Medical and Clinical Research Institute. E Upadhyay reports published patents for “a system and method of reusable filters for anti-pollution mask” and “a system and method for electricity generation through crop stubble by using microbial fuel cells”, and filed patents for “a system for disposed personal protection equipment (PPE) into biofuel through pyrolysis and method” and “a novel herbal pharmaceutical aid for formulation of gel and method thereof” and is Joint Secretary of the Indian Meteorological Society, (Jaipur Chapter).

Funding Information:
This study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. L G Abreu acknowledges support from Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil (Capes; finance Code 001), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais. D A Bennett acknowledges support from the Oxford National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, or the UK Department of Health and Social Care. Z A Bhutta acknowledges support from the Institute for Global Health & Development at the Aga Khan University. F Carvalho acknowledges UID/MULTI/04378/2019 and UID/QUI/50006/2019 support with funding from FCT/MCTES through national funds. J-W De Neve is supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. S Dey acknowledges the support from the Centre of Excellence for Research on Clean Air, IIT Delhi. M Ausloos and C Herteliu are partly supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation (project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084). C Herteliu is partly supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation (project number PN-III-P2-2.1-SOL-2020-2-0351), the Romanian Ministry of Research Innovation and Digitalization (project number ID-585-CTR-42-PFE-2021), and the Romanian Ministry of Labour and Social Justice (30/PSCD/2018). M Jakovljevic acknowledges partial support through Grant OI 175 014 of the Ministry of Science Education and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. J S John acknowledges support from the Kunshan Government and China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. W Mendoza is a program analyst in population and development at the United Nations Population Fund country office in Peru, an institution that does not necessarily endorse this study. M N Khan acknowledges the support of Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Bangladesh. K Krishan is supported by UGC Centre of Advanced Study (CAS II), awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M Kumar acknowledges support (FIC/NIH funded K43 TW010716-04 study). B Lacey acknowledges support from UK Biobank, the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and the British Heart Foundation Oxford Centre of Research Excellence. B R Nascimento acknowledges support in part by CNPq (Bolsa de produtividade em pesquisa, 312382/2019-7), by the Edwards Lifesciences Foundation (Every Heartbeat Matters Program 2020) and by FAPEMIG (grant APQ-000627-20). A M Samy acknowledges the support from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. M M Santric-Milicevic acknowledges the support of the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of Serbia (contract 175087). A Sheikh acknowledges the support of Health Data Research UK. I N Soyiri acknowledges support from the University of Hull internal QR Global Challenges Research Fund. S B Zaman acknowledges receiving a scholarship from the Australian Government research training program in support of his academic career. Y Zhang was supported by Science and Technology Research Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education (grant Q20201104) and Outstanding Young and Middle Aged Technology Innovation Team Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education (grant T2020003).

Funding Information:
This study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. L G Abreu acknowledges support from Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil (Capes; finance Code 001), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais. D A Bennett acknowledges support from the Oxford National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, or the UK Department of Health and Social Care. Z A Bhutta acknowledges support from the Institute for Global Health & Development at the Aga Khan University. F Carvalho acknowledges UID/MULTI/04378/2019 and UID/QUI/50006/2019 support with funding from FCT/MCTES through national funds. J-W De Neve is supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. S Dey acknowledges the support from the Centre of Excellence for Research on Clean Air, IIT Delhi. M Ausloos and C Herteliu are partly supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation (project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084). C Herteliu is partly supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation (project number PN-III-P2-2.1-SOL-2020-2-0351), the Romanian Ministry of Research Innovation and Digitalization (project number ID-585-CTR-42-PFE-2021), and the Romanian Ministry of Labour and Social Justice (30/PSCD/2018). M Jakovljevic acknowledges partial support through Grant OI 175 014 of the Ministry of Science Education and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. J S John acknowledges support from the Kunshan Government and China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. W Mendoza is a program analyst in population and development at the United Nations Population Fund country office in Peru, an institution that does not necessarily endorse this study. M N Khan acknowledges the support of Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Bangladesh. K Krishan is supported by UGC Centre of Advanced Study (CAS II), awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M Kumar acknowledges support (FIC/NIH funded K43 TW010716-04 study). B Lacey acknowledges support from UK Biobank, the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and the British Heart Foundation Oxford Centre of Research Excellence. B R Nascimento acknowledges support in part by CNPq (Bolsa de produtividade em pesquisa, 312382/2019-7), by the Edwards Lifesciences Foundation (Every Heartbeat Matters Program 2020) and by FAPEMIG (grant APQ-000627-20). A M Samy acknowledges the support from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. M M Santric-Milicevic acknowledges the support of the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of Serbia (contract 175087). A Sheikh acknowledges the support of Health Data Research UK. I N Soyiri acknowledges support from the University of Hull internal QR Global Challenges Research Fund. S B Zaman acknowledges receiving a scholarship from the Australian Government research training program in support of his academic career. Y Zhang was supported by Science and Technology Research Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education (grant Q20201104) and Outstanding Young and Middle Aged Technology Innovation Team Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education (grant T2020003). Editorial note: The Lancet Group takes a neutral position with respect to territorial claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

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10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00332-1

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@article{4392efcb69624b1ab034a53c9b1cbf32,

title = "Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–18: a geospatial modelling study",

abstract = "Background: More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels. Methods: We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution. Findings: Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000–257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution. Interpretation: Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.",

author = "{Local Burden of Disease Household Air Pollution Collaborators} and Frostad, {Joseph Jon} and Nguyen, {Quynh Anh P.} and Baumann, {Mathew M.} and Blacker, {Brigette F.} and Marczak, {Laurie B.} and Aniruddha Deshpande and Wiens, {Kirsten E.} and LeGrand, {Kate E.} and Johnson, {Kimberly B.} and Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari and Amir Abdoli and Hassan Abolhassani and Abreu, {Lucas Guimar{\~a}es} and Abrigo, {Michael R.M.} and Abu-Rmeileh, {Niveen M.E.} and Victor Adekanmbi and Anurag Agrawal and Ahmed, {Muktar Beshir} and Ziyad Al-Aly and Alanezi, {Fahad Mashhour} and Alcalde-Rabanal, {Jacqueline Elizabeth} and Vahid Alipour and Altirkawi, {Khalid A.} and Nelson Alvis-Guzman and Alvis-Zakzuk, {Nelson J.} and Amegah, {Adeladza Kofi} and Saeed Amini and Fatemeh Amiri and Amugsi, {Dickson A.} and Robert Ancuceanu and Andrei, {Catalina Liliana} and Tudorel Andrei and Ernoiz Antriyandarti and Davood Anvari and Jalal Arabloo and Morteza Arab-Zozani and Athari, {Seyyed Shamsadin} and Marcel Ausloos and Getinet Ayano and Aynalem, {Yared Asmare} and Samad Azari and Badiye, {Ashish D.} and Baig, {Atif Amin} and Kalpana Balakrishnan and Maciej Banach and Sanjay Basu and Neeraj Bedi and Bell, {Michelle L.} and Bennett, {Derrick A.} and Jennifer Rickard",

note = "Funding Information: R Ancuceanu reports consultancy or speakers{\textquoteright} fees from UCB, Sandoz, Abbvie, Zentiva, Teva, Laropharm, CEGEDIM, Angelini, B Braun, Biessen Pharma, Hofigal, AstraZeneca, and Stadam. M L Bell reports grants or contracts from the US Environmental Protection Agency, National Institutes of Health, High Tide Foundation, Yale Climate Change and Health Center, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Environmental Defense Fund, Health Effects Institute and the Wellcome Trust, all as payments to their institution; consulting fees from the Environmental Protection Agency as personal payments for membership on the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, grant reviews, manuscript writing, external advisory committees, or educational events from Boston University, Korea University, the Organization of Teratology Information Specialists, the NIH, Health Canada, PAC-10, UK Research Institute, Harvard University, and the University of Montana; support for attending meetings or travel from Boston University, Harvard University, University of Illinois at Champaign, and the University of Texas; participation on a data safety monitoring board or advisory board with National Academies Panels and Committees; membership of Lancet Countdown, Fifth National Climate Assessment, Johns Hopkins University Deptartment of Environmental Health and Engineering Advisory Board, WHO Global Air Pollution and Health Technical Advisory group, and the US Environmental Protection Agency Clean Air Scientific Advisory Board. J M Castaldelli-Maia reports grants from the French National Institute for Cancer and Pfizer and consulting fees from L{\textquoteright}Oreal for participation on international multidisciplinary scientific boards around skin conditions and mental wellness. A Deshpande reports consulting fees from Epidemiology Research & Methods. SMS Islam reports grants from the National Heart Foundation of Australia and from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. K Krishan reports non-financial support from UGC Centre of Advanced Study, CAS II, Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. P W Mahasha reports leadership or fiduciary roles or membership in the Federation of Infectious Diseases Societies of Southern Africa, the EU-Africa PerMed Consortium, the South African Society for Biochemistry and Molecular, the International Society for Infectious Diseases, the Global Burden of Disease Collaborator Network, the South African Society of Microbiology, the COVID-19 Clinical Research Coalition, the Scholars Academic and Scientific Society, and the South African Council for Natural Scientific Professions. S Mohammed reports support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and a fellowship grant from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. S B Munro reports stock in Invitae and other financial or non-financial interests as an employee of Invitae. T Pilgrim reports grants or contracts from Biotronik, Boston Scientific, and Edwards Lifesciences as personal payments; participation on a data safety monitoring board or advisory board with Highlife SAS on the Clinical Event Adjudication Committee; and other financial and non-financial interests with Boston Scientific and Medtronic for proctoring. M J Postma reports stock or stock options in Health-Ecore (25%) and Pharmacoeconomics Advice Groningen (100%). A Radfar reports financial or non-financial support from Avicenna Medical and Clinical Research Institute. E Upadhyay reports published patents for “a system and method of reusable filters for anti-pollution mask” and “a system and method for electricity generation through crop stubble by using microbial fuel cells”, and filed patents for “a system for disposed personal protection equipment (PPE) into biofuel through pyrolysis and method” and “a novel herbal pharmaceutical aid for formulation of gel and method thereof” and is Joint Secretary of the Indian Meteorological Society, (Jaipur Chapter). Funding Information: This study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. L G Abreu acknowledges support from Coordena{\c c}{\~a}o de Aperfei{\c c}oamento de Pessoal de N{\'i}vel Superior—Brasil (Capes; finance Code 001), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient{\'i}fico e Tecnol{\'o}gico, and Funda{\c c}{\~a}o de Amparo {\`a} Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais. D A Bennett acknowledges support from the Oxford National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, or the UK Department of Health and Social Care. Z A Bhutta acknowledges support from the Institute for Global Health & Development at the Aga Khan University. F Carvalho acknowledges UID/MULTI/04378/2019 and UID/QUI/50006/2019 support with funding from FCT/MCTES through national funds. J-W De Neve is supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. S Dey acknowledges the support from the Centre of Excellence for Research on Clean Air, IIT Delhi. M Ausloos and C Herteliu are partly supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation (project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084). C Herteliu is partly supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation (project number PN-III-P2-2.1-SOL-2020-2-0351), the Romanian Ministry of Research Innovation and Digitalization (project number ID-585-CTR-42-PFE-2021), and the Romanian Ministry of Labour and Social Justice (30/PSCD/2018). M Jakovljevic acknowledges partial support through Grant OI 175 014 of the Ministry of Science Education and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. J S John acknowledges support from the Kunshan Government and China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. W Mendoza is a program analyst in population and development at the United Nations Population Fund country office in Peru, an institution that does not necessarily endorse this study. M N Khan acknowledges the support of Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Bangladesh. K Krishan is supported by UGC Centre of Advanced Study (CAS II), awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M Kumar acknowledges support (FIC/NIH funded K43 TW010716-04 study). B Lacey acknowledges support from UK Biobank, the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and the British Heart Foundation Oxford Centre of Research Excellence. B R Nascimento acknowledges support in part by CNPq (Bolsa de produtividade em pesquisa, 312382/2019-7), by the Edwards Lifesciences Foundation (Every Heartbeat Matters Program 2020) and by FAPEMIG (grant APQ-000627-20). A M Samy acknowledges the support from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. M M Santric-Milicevic acknowledges the support of the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of Serbia (contract 175087). A Sheikh acknowledges the support of Health Data Research UK. I N Soyiri acknowledges support from the University of Hull internal QR Global Challenges Research Fund. S B Zaman acknowledges receiving a scholarship from the Australian Government research training program in support of his academic career. Y Zhang was supported by Science and Technology Research Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education (grant Q20201104) and Outstanding Young and Middle Aged Technology Innovation Team Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education (grant T2020003). Funding Information: This study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. L G Abreu acknowledges support from Coordena{\c c}{\~a}o de Aperfei{\c c}oamento de Pessoal de N{\'i}vel Superior—Brasil (Capes; finance Code 001), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient{\'i}fico e Tecnol{\'o}gico, and Funda{\c c}{\~a}o de Amparo {\`a} Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais. D A Bennett acknowledges support from the Oxford National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, or the UK Department of Health and Social Care. Z A Bhutta acknowledges support from the Institute for Global Health & Development at the Aga Khan University. F Carvalho acknowledges UID/MULTI/04378/2019 and UID/QUI/50006/2019 support with funding from FCT/MCTES through national funds. J-W De Neve is supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. S Dey acknowledges the support from the Centre of Excellence for Research on Clean Air, IIT Delhi. M Ausloos and C Herteliu are partly supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation (project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084). C Herteliu is partly supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation (project number PN-III-P2-2.1-SOL-2020-2-0351), the Romanian Ministry of Research Innovation and Digitalization (project number ID-585-CTR-42-PFE-2021), and the Romanian Ministry of Labour and Social Justice (30/PSCD/2018). M Jakovljevic acknowledges partial support through Grant OI 175 014 of the Ministry of Science Education and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. J S John acknowledges support from the Kunshan Government and China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. W Mendoza is a program analyst in population and development at the United Nations Population Fund country office in Peru, an institution that does not necessarily endorse this study. M N Khan acknowledges the support of Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Bangladesh. K Krishan is supported by UGC Centre of Advanced Study (CAS II), awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M Kumar acknowledges support (FIC/NIH funded K43 TW010716-04 study). B Lacey acknowledges support from UK Biobank, the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and the British Heart Foundation Oxford Centre of Research Excellence. B R Nascimento acknowledges support in part by CNPq (Bolsa de produtividade em pesquisa, 312382/2019-7), by the Edwards Lifesciences Foundation (Every Heartbeat Matters Program 2020) and by FAPEMIG (grant APQ-000627-20). A M Samy acknowledges the support from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. M M Santric-Milicevic acknowledges the support of the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of Serbia (contract 175087). A Sheikh acknowledges the support of Health Data Research UK. I N Soyiri acknowledges support from the University of Hull internal QR Global Challenges Research Fund. S B Zaman acknowledges receiving a scholarship from the Australian Government research training program in support of his academic career. Y Zhang was supported by Science and Technology Research Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education (grant Q20201104) and Outstanding Young and Middle Aged Technology Innovation Team Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education (grant T2020003). Editorial note: The Lancet Group takes a neutral position with respect to territorial claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license",

year = "2022",

month = oct,

doi = "10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00332-1",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "10",

pages = "e1395--e1411",

journal = "The Lancet Global Health",

issn = "2214-109X",

publisher = "Elsevier BV",

number = "10",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–18

T2 - a geospatial modelling study

AU - Local Burden of Disease Household Air Pollution Collaborators

AU - Frostad, Joseph Jon

AU - Nguyen, Quynh Anh P.

AU - Baumann, Mathew M.

AU - Blacker, Brigette F.

AU - Marczak, Laurie B.

AU - Deshpande, Aniruddha

AU - Wiens, Kirsten E.

AU - LeGrand, Kate E.

AU - Johnson, Kimberly B.

AU - Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen

AU - Abdoli, Amir

AU - Abolhassani, Hassan

AU - Abreu, Lucas Guimarães

AU - Abrigo, Michael R.M.

AU - Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E.

AU - Adekanmbi, Victor

AU - Agrawal, Anurag

AU - Ahmed, Muktar Beshir

AU - Al-Aly, Ziyad

AU - Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour

AU - Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth

AU - Alipour, Vahid

AU - Altirkawi, Khalid A.

AU - Alvis-Guzman, Nelson

AU - Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J.

AU - Amegah, Adeladza Kofi

AU - Amini, Saeed

AU - Amiri, Fatemeh

AU - Amugsi, Dickson A.

AU - Ancuceanu, Robert

AU - Andrei, Catalina Liliana

AU - Andrei, Tudorel

AU - Antriyandarti, Ernoiz

AU - Anvari, Davood

AU - Arabloo, Jalal

AU - Arab-Zozani, Morteza

AU - Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin

AU - Ausloos, Marcel

AU - Ayano, Getinet

AU - Aynalem, Yared Asmare

AU - Azari, Samad

AU - Badiye, Ashish D.

AU - Baig, Atif Amin

AU - Balakrishnan, Kalpana

AU - Banach, Maciej

AU - Basu, Sanjay

AU - Bedi, Neeraj

AU - Bell, Michelle L.

AU - Bennett, Derrick A.

AU - Rickard, Jennifer

N1 - Funding Information: R Ancuceanu reports consultancy or speakers’ fees from UCB, Sandoz, Abbvie, Zentiva, Teva, Laropharm, CEGEDIM, Angelini, B Braun, Biessen Pharma, Hofigal, AstraZeneca, and Stadam. M L Bell reports grants or contracts from the US Environmental Protection Agency, National Institutes of Health, High Tide Foundation, Yale Climate Change and Health Center, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Environmental Defense Fund, Health Effects Institute and the Wellcome Trust, all as payments to their institution; consulting fees from the Environmental Protection Agency as personal payments for membership on the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, grant reviews, manuscript writing, external advisory committees, or educational events from Boston University, Korea University, the Organization of Teratology Information Specialists, the NIH, Health Canada, PAC-10, UK Research Institute, Harvard University, and the University of Montana; support for attending meetings or travel from Boston University, Harvard University, University of Illinois at Champaign, and the University of Texas; participation on a data safety monitoring board or advisory board with National Academies Panels and Committees; membership of Lancet Countdown, Fifth National Climate Assessment, Johns Hopkins University Deptartment of Environmental Health and Engineering Advisory Board, WHO Global Air Pollution and Health Technical Advisory group, and the US Environmental Protection Agency Clean Air Scientific Advisory Board. J M Castaldelli-Maia reports grants from the French National Institute for Cancer and Pfizer and consulting fees from L’Oreal for participation on international multidisciplinary scientific boards around skin conditions and mental wellness. A Deshpande reports consulting fees from Epidemiology Research & Methods. SMS Islam reports grants from the National Heart Foundation of Australia and from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. K Krishan reports non-financial support from UGC Centre of Advanced Study, CAS II, Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. P W Mahasha reports leadership or fiduciary roles or membership in the Federation of Infectious Diseases Societies of Southern Africa, the EU-Africa PerMed Consortium, the South African Society for Biochemistry and Molecular, the International Society for Infectious Diseases, the Global Burden of Disease Collaborator Network, the South African Society of Microbiology, the COVID-19 Clinical Research Coalition, the Scholars Academic and Scientific Society, and the South African Council for Natural Scientific Professions. S Mohammed reports support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and a fellowship grant from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. S B Munro reports stock in Invitae and other financial or non-financial interests as an employee of Invitae. T Pilgrim reports grants or contracts from Biotronik, Boston Scientific, and Edwards Lifesciences as personal payments; participation on a data safety monitoring board or advisory board with Highlife SAS on the Clinical Event Adjudication Committee; and other financial and non-financial interests with Boston Scientific and Medtronic for proctoring. M J Postma reports stock or stock options in Health-Ecore (25%) and Pharmacoeconomics Advice Groningen (100%). A Radfar reports financial or non-financial support from Avicenna Medical and Clinical Research Institute. E Upadhyay reports published patents for “a system and method of reusable filters for anti-pollution mask” and “a system and method for electricity generation through crop stubble by using microbial fuel cells”, and filed patents for “a system for disposed personal protection equipment (PPE) into biofuel through pyrolysis and method” and “a novel herbal pharmaceutical aid for formulation of gel and method thereof” and is Joint Secretary of the Indian Meteorological Society, (Jaipur Chapter). Funding Information: This study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. L G Abreu acknowledges support from Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil (Capes; finance Code 001), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais. D A Bennett acknowledges support from the Oxford National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, or the UK Department of Health and Social Care. Z A Bhutta acknowledges support from the Institute for Global Health & Development at the Aga Khan University. F Carvalho acknowledges UID/MULTI/04378/2019 and UID/QUI/50006/2019 support with funding from FCT/MCTES through national funds. J-W De Neve is supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. S Dey acknowledges the support from the Centre of Excellence for Research on Clean Air, IIT Delhi. M Ausloos and C Herteliu are partly supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation (project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084). C Herteliu is partly supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation (project number PN-III-P2-2.1-SOL-2020-2-0351), the Romanian Ministry of Research Innovation and Digitalization (project number ID-585-CTR-42-PFE-2021), and the Romanian Ministry of Labour and Social Justice (30/PSCD/2018). M Jakovljevic acknowledges partial support through Grant OI 175 014 of the Ministry of Science Education and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. J S John acknowledges support from the Kunshan Government and China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. W Mendoza is a program analyst in population and development at the United Nations Population Fund country office in Peru, an institution that does not necessarily endorse this study. M N Khan acknowledges the support of Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Bangladesh. K Krishan is supported by UGC Centre of Advanced Study (CAS II), awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M Kumar acknowledges support (FIC/NIH funded K43 TW010716-04 study). B Lacey acknowledges support from UK Biobank, the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and the British Heart Foundation Oxford Centre of Research Excellence. B R Nascimento acknowledges support in part by CNPq (Bolsa de produtividade em pesquisa, 312382/2019-7), by the Edwards Lifesciences Foundation (Every Heartbeat Matters Program 2020) and by FAPEMIG (grant APQ-000627-20). A M Samy acknowledges the support from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. M M Santric-Milicevic acknowledges the support of the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of Serbia (contract 175087). A Sheikh acknowledges the support of Health Data Research UK. I N Soyiri acknowledges support from the University of Hull internal QR Global Challenges Research Fund. S B Zaman acknowledges receiving a scholarship from the Australian Government research training program in support of his academic career. Y Zhang was supported by Science and Technology Research Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education (grant Q20201104) and Outstanding Young and Middle Aged Technology Innovation Team Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education (grant T2020003). Funding Information: This study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. L G Abreu acknowledges support from Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil (Capes; finance Code 001), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais. D A Bennett acknowledges support from the Oxford National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, or the UK Department of Health and Social Care. Z A Bhutta acknowledges support from the Institute for Global Health & Development at the Aga Khan University. F Carvalho acknowledges UID/MULTI/04378/2019 and UID/QUI/50006/2019 support with funding from FCT/MCTES through national funds. J-W De Neve is supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. S Dey acknowledges the support from the Centre of Excellence for Research on Clean Air, IIT Delhi. M Ausloos and C Herteliu are partly supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation (project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084). C Herteliu is partly supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation (project number PN-III-P2-2.1-SOL-2020-2-0351), the Romanian Ministry of Research Innovation and Digitalization (project number ID-585-CTR-42-PFE-2021), and the Romanian Ministry of Labour and Social Justice (30/PSCD/2018). M Jakovljevic acknowledges partial support through Grant OI 175 014 of the Ministry of Science Education and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. J S John acknowledges support from the Kunshan Government and China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. W Mendoza is a program analyst in population and development at the United Nations Population Fund country office in Peru, an institution that does not necessarily endorse this study. M N Khan acknowledges the support of Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Bangladesh. K Krishan is supported by UGC Centre of Advanced Study (CAS II), awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M Kumar acknowledges support (FIC/NIH funded K43 TW010716-04 study). B Lacey acknowledges support from UK Biobank, the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and the British Heart Foundation Oxford Centre of Research Excellence. B R Nascimento acknowledges support in part by CNPq (Bolsa de produtividade em pesquisa, 312382/2019-7), by the Edwards Lifesciences Foundation (Every Heartbeat Matters Program 2020) and by FAPEMIG (grant APQ-000627-20). A M Samy acknowledges the support from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. M M Santric-Milicevic acknowledges the support of the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of Serbia (contract 175087). A Sheikh acknowledges the support of Health Data Research UK. I N Soyiri acknowledges support from the University of Hull internal QR Global Challenges Research Fund. S B Zaman acknowledges receiving a scholarship from the Australian Government research training program in support of his academic career. Y Zhang was supported by Science and Technology Research Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education (grant Q20201104) and Outstanding Young and Middle Aged Technology Innovation Team Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education (grant T2020003). Editorial note: The Lancet Group takes a neutral position with respect to territorial claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

PY - 2022/10

Y1 - 2022/10

N2 - Background: More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels. Methods: We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution. Findings: Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000–257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution. Interpretation: Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

AB - Background: More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels. Methods: We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution. Findings: Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000–257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution. Interpretation: Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85137821908&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85137821908&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00332-1

DO - 10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00332-1

M3 - Article

C2 - 36113526

AN - SCOPUS:85137821908

SN - 2214-109X

VL - 10

SP - e1395-e1411

JO - The Lancet Global Health

JF - The Lancet Global Health

IS - 10

ER -

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–18: a geospatial modelling study

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