Long and Short of It: Early Response Predicts Longer-Term Outcomes in Pediatric Weight Management

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine whether 1-month BMI improvement is predictive of superior 6- and 12-month BMI changes in a national sample of youth in pediatric weight management treatment.

METHODS: Participants were 4- to 18-year-olds from the Pediatric Obesity Weight Evaluation Registry, a prospective study collecting data from 31 pediatric weight management programs across the United States. Response at 1 month was defined as ≥ 3% BMI reduction; success at 6 and 12 months was defined as ≥ 5% BMI reduction from baseline. Analyses used linear and logistic regression with robust variance estimation.

RESULTS: Primary analyses were completed with 687 participants (mean age 12.2 years). One-month responders demonstrated significant improvements in BMI compared with nonresponders at 6 months (BMI, -2.05 vs. 0.05; %BMI, -5.81 vs. 0.23; P < 0.001 for all) and 12 months (BMI, -1.87 vs. 0.30; %BMI, -5.04 vs. 1.06; P < 0.001 for all). The odds of success for 1-month responders were 9.64 (95% CI: 5.85-15.87; P < 0.001) times that of nonresponders at 6 months and 5.24 (95% CI: 2.49-11.02; P < 0.001) times that of nonresponders at 12 months.

CONCLUSIONS: In treatment-seeking youth with obesity, early BMI reduction was significantly associated with greater long-term BMI reduction. Nonresponders may benefit from early treatment redirection or intensification.