Linking economic value, trade dynamics and forest loss in global primary wood production

Global primary wood products support livelihoods and industry but threaten forest sustainability. Using data from 179 countries from 2000 to 2021, we quantify economic and trade contributions, map associated forest loss, and assess mitigation policies. Global production rose 15.2% from 3.46 to 3.99 billion m3. Cumulative production value reached $8.52 trillion. Their contribution to global gross domestic product declined from 0.74% to 0.47%. Over the study period, counterfactual modeling estimates primary wood product extraction corresponds to a cumulative net forest area loss of 869,298.68 km² as a model-derived upper bound. Model-dependent policy simulations show forest certification and moderate wood price increases are linked to lower production-related forest loss in 174 countries, with heterogeneous effects by income group: stronger price effects in lower-income nations and greater certification efficacy in high-income countries. These results provide pathways to balance ecological costs with economic benefits for sustainable forest management.