Likelihood analysis of the sub-GUT MSSM in light of LHC 13-TeV data

We describe a likelihood analysis using MasterCode of variants of the MSSM in which the soft supersymmetry-breaking parameters are assumed to have universal values at some scale M_in below the supersymmetric grand unification scale M_GUT, as can occur in mirage mediation and other models. In addition to M_in, such ‘sub-GUT’ models have the 4 parameters of the CMSSM, namely a common gaugino mass m_{1 / 2}, a common soft supersymmetry-breaking scalar mass m₀, a common trilinear mixing parameter A and the ratio of MSSM Higgs vevs tan β, assuming that the Higgs mixing parameter μ> 0. We take into account constraints on strongly- and electroweakly-interacting sparticles from ∼ 36 /fb of LHC data at 13 TeV and the LUX and 2017 PICO, XENON1T and PandaX-II searches for dark matter scattering, in addition to the previous LHC and dark matter constraints as well as full sets of flavour and electroweak constraints. We find a preference for M_in∼ 10 ⁵ to 109GeV, with M_in∼ M_GUT disfavoured by Δ χ²∼ 3 due to the BR (B_{s , d}→ μ⁺μ^-) constraint. The lower limits on strongly-interacting sparticles are largely determined by LHC searches, and similar to those in the CMSSM. We find a preference for the LSP to be a Bino or Higgsino with mχ~10∼1TeV, with annihilation via heavy Higgs bosons H / A and stop coannihilation, or chargino coannihilation, bringing the cold dark matter density into the cosmological range. We find that spin-independent dark matter scattering is likely to be within reach of the planned LUX-Zeplin and XENONnT experiments. We probe the impact of the (g- 2) _μ constraint, finding similar results whether or not it is included.