TY - JOUR
T1 - Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia
AU - Zohner, Constantin M.
AU - Mo, Lidong
AU - Renner, Susanne S.
AU - Svenning, Jens Christian
AU - Vitasse, Yann
AU - Benito, Blas M.
AU - Ordonez, Alejandro
AU - Baumgarten, Frederik
AU - Bastin, Jean François
AU - Sebald, Veronica
AU - Reich, Peter B.
AU - Liang, Jingjing
AU - Nabuurs, Gert Jan
AU - De-Migueln, Sergio
AU - Alberti, Giorgio
AU - Antón-Fernández, Clara
AU - Balazy, Radomir
AU - Brändli, Urs Beat
AU - Chen, Han Y.H.
AU - Chisholm, Chelsea
AU - Cienciala, Emil
AU - Dayanandan, Selvadurai
AU - Fayle, Tom M.
AU - Frizzera, Lorenzo
AU - Gianelle, Damiano
AU - Jagodzinski, Andrzej M.
AU - Jaroszewicz, Bogdan
AU - Jucker, Tommaso
AU - Kepfer-Rojas, Sebastian
AU - Khan, Mohammed Latif
AU - Kim, Hyun Seok
AU - Korjus, Henn
AU - Johannsen, Vivian Kvist
AU - Laarmann, Diana
AU - Langn, Mait
AU - Zawila-Niedzwiecki, Tomasz
AU - Niklaus, Pascal A.
AU - Paquette, Alain
AU - Pretzsch, Hans
AU - Saikia, Purabi
AU - Schall, Peter
AU - Seben, Vladimír
AU - Svoboda, Miroslav
AU - Tikhonova, Elena
AU - Viana, Helder
AU - Zhang, Chunyu
AU - Zhao, Xiuhai
AU - Crowther, Thomas W.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
PY - 2020/6/2
Y1 - 2020/6/2
N2 - Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.
AB - Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.
KW - Climate change
KW - Freezing damage
KW - Late frost
KW - Phenology
KW - Spring leaf-out
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U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1920816117
DO - 10.1073/pnas.1920816117
M3 - Article
C2 - 32393624
AN - SCOPUS:85084230084
SN - 0027-8424
VL - 117
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
IS - 22
ER -