Judgmental forecasting: Cognitive reflection and decision speed

Brent Moritz, Enno Siemsen, Mirko Kremer

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

55 Scopus citations


This research analyzes how individual differences affect performance in judgmental time-series forecasting. Decision makers with the ability to balance intuitive judgment with cognitive deliberation, as measured by the cognitive reflection test, tend to have lower forecast errors. This relationship holds when controlling for intelligence. Furthermore, forecast errors increase for very fast or very slow decisions. We provide evidence that forecast performance can be improved by manipulating decision speed.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1146-1160
Number of pages15
JournalProduction and Operations Management
Issue number7
StatePublished - Jul 2014


  • behavioral operations
  • cognitive reflection
  • decision speed
  • forecasting


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