Is crime a “root cause” of Central American emigration? Evidence from El Salvador

Kaleb Abreha; Trinity Johnson; Raymond Robertson

doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103456

Is crime a “root cause” of Central American emigration? Evidence from El Salvador

Kaleb Abreha
, Trinity Johnson
, Raymond Robertson

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

We estimate the impact of President Bukele's 2022 crime crackdown on migrant encounters at the U.S. border. El Salvador is a key source of migration through the Southern U.S. border and had high crime rates. In March 2022, a surge in violence led to a state of exception and mass arrest of suspected gang affiliates, which raised human rights concerns and significantly reduced homicides. Applying difference-in-differences and synthetic cohort methods, we find an 45%–67% decline in U.S. border encounters with Salvadorans relative to others.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	103456
Journal	Journal of Development Economics
Volume	174
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103456
State	Published - May 2025
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2025

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

Keywords

Crime and violence
El Salvador
Migration
Poverty
United States

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10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103456

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title = "Is crime a {\textquotedblleft}root cause{\textquotedblright} of Central American emigration? Evidence from El Salvador",

abstract = "We estimate the impact of President Bukele's 2022 crime crackdown on migrant encounters at the U.S. border. El Salvador is a key source of migration through the Southern U.S. border and had high crime rates. In March 2022, a surge in violence led to a state of exception and mass arrest of suspected gang affiliates, which raised human rights concerns and significantly reduced homicides. Applying difference-in-differences and synthetic cohort methods, we find an 45\%{\textendash}67\% decline in U.S. border encounters with Salvadorans relative to others.",

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AU - Robertson, Raymond

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N2 - We estimate the impact of President Bukele's 2022 crime crackdown on migrant encounters at the U.S. border. El Salvador is a key source of migration through the Southern U.S. border and had high crime rates. In March 2022, a surge in violence led to a state of exception and mass arrest of suspected gang affiliates, which raised human rights concerns and significantly reduced homicides. Applying difference-in-differences and synthetic cohort methods, we find an 45%–67% decline in U.S. border encounters with Salvadorans relative to others.

AB - We estimate the impact of President Bukele's 2022 crime crackdown on migrant encounters at the U.S. border. El Salvador is a key source of migration through the Southern U.S. border and had high crime rates. In March 2022, a surge in violence led to a state of exception and mass arrest of suspected gang affiliates, which raised human rights concerns and significantly reduced homicides. Applying difference-in-differences and synthetic cohort methods, we find an 45%–67% decline in U.S. border encounters with Salvadorans relative to others.

KW - Crime and violence

KW - El Salvador

KW - Migration

KW - Poverty

KW - United States

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85215834393

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M3 - Article

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VL - 174

JO - Journal of Development Economics

JF - Journal of Development Economics

M1 - 103456

ER -

Is crime a “root cause” of Central American emigration? Evidence from El Salvador

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Keywords

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