Inflow restrictions can prevent epidemics when contact tracing efforts are effective but have limited capacity: Inflow restrictions can prevent epidemics when contact tracing efforts are effective but have limited capacity

Hannes Malmberg, Tom Britton

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

When a region tries to prevent an outbreak of an epidemic, two broad strategies are available: limiting the inflow of infected cases by using travel restrictions and quarantines or limiting the risk of local transmission from imported cases by using contact tracing and other community interventions. A number of papers have used epidemiological models to argue that inflow restrictions are unlikely to be effective. We simulate a simple epidemiological model to show that this conclusion changes if containment efforts such as contact tracing have limited capacity. In particular, our results show that moderate travel restrictions can lead to large reductions in the probability of an epidemic when contact tracing is effective but the contact tracing system is close to being overwhelmed.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number20200351
JournalJournal of the Royal Society Interface
Volume17
Issue number170
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 1 2020

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
T.B. acknowledges funding from the Swedish Research Council, grant no. 2015-05015. Acknowledgements

Keywords

  • contact tracing
  • epidemics
  • travel restrictions

PubMed: MeSH publication types

  • Journal Article
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

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