TY - JOUR
T1 - Inferring uncertainty from interval estimates
T2 - Effects of alpha level and numeracy
AU - Rinne, Luke F.
AU - Mazzocco, Michèle M.M.
PY - 2013/5/1
Y1 - 2013/5/1
N2 - Interval estimates are commonly used to descriptively communicate the degree of uncertainty in numerical values. Conventionally, low alpha levels (e.g.,.05) ensure a high probability of capturing the target value between interval endpoints. Here, we test whether alpha levels and individual differences in numeracy influence distributional inferences. In the reported experiment, participants received prediction intervals for fictitious towns' annual rainfall totals (assuming approximately normal distributions). Then, participants estimated probabilities that future totals would be captured within varying margins about the mean, indicating the approximate shapes of their inferred probability distributions. Results showed that low alpha levels (vs. moderate levels; e.g.,.25) more frequently led to inferences of over-dispersed approximately normal distributions or approximately uniform distributions, reducing estimate accuracy. Highly numerate participants made more accurate estimates overall, but were more prone to inferring approximately uniform distributions. These findings have important implications for presenting interval estimates to various audiences.
AB - Interval estimates are commonly used to descriptively communicate the degree of uncertainty in numerical values. Conventionally, low alpha levels (e.g.,.05) ensure a high probability of capturing the target value between interval endpoints. Here, we test whether alpha levels and individual differences in numeracy influence distributional inferences. In the reported experiment, participants received prediction intervals for fictitious towns' annual rainfall totals (assuming approximately normal distributions). Then, participants estimated probabilities that future totals would be captured within varying margins about the mean, indicating the approximate shapes of their inferred probability distributions. Results showed that low alpha levels (vs. moderate levels; e.g.,.25) more frequently led to inferences of over-dispersed approximately normal distributions or approximately uniform distributions, reducing estimate accuracy. Highly numerate participants made more accurate estimates overall, but were more prone to inferring approximately uniform distributions. These findings have important implications for presenting interval estimates to various audiences.
KW - Decision-making
KW - Interval estimates
KW - Numeracy
KW - Numerical cognition
KW - Probability judgment
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84878441087&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84878441087&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84878441087
SN - 1930-2975
VL - 8
SP - 330
EP - 344
JO - Judgment and Decision Making
JF - Judgment and Decision Making
IS - 3
ER -