Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change

M. C. Urban; G. Bocedi; A. P. Hendry; J. B. Mihoub; G. Pe'er; A. Singer; J. R. Bridle; L. G. Crozier; L. De Meester; W. Godsoe; A. Gonzalez; J. J. Hellmann; R. D. Holt; A. Huth; K. Johst; C. B. Krug; P. W. Leadley; S. C.F. Palmer; J. H. Pantel; A. Schmitz; P. A. Zollner; J. M.J. Travis

doi:10.1126/science.aad8466

Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change

M. C. Urban, G. Bocedi, A. P. Hendry, J. B. Mihoub, G. Pe'er, A. Singer, J. R. Bridle, L. G. Crozier, L. De Meester, W. Godsoe, A. Gonzalez, J. J. Hellmann, R. D. Holt, A. Huth, K. Johst, C. B. Krug, P. W. Leadley, S. C.F. Palmer, J. H. Pantel, A. SchmitzP. A. Zollner, J. M.J. Travis

Institute on the Environment

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

766 Scopus citations

Abstract

New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species' responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	aad8466
Journal	Science
Volume	353
Issue number	6304
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad8466
State	Published - Sep 9 2016

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2016 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science; all rights reserved.

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This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1126/science.aad8466

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Urban, M. C., Bocedi, G., Hendry, A. P., Mihoub, J. B., Pe'er, G., Singer, A., Bridle, J. R., Crozier, L. G., De Meester, L., Godsoe, W., Gonzalez, A., Hellmann, J. J., Holt, R. D., Huth, A., Johst, K., Krug, C. B., Leadley, P. W., Palmer, S. C. F., Pantel, J. H., ... Travis, J. M. J. (2016). Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change. Science, 353(6304), Article aad8466. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad8466

Urban, MC, Bocedi, G, Hendry, AP, Mihoub, JB, Pe'er, G, Singer, A, Bridle, JR, Crozier, LG, De Meester, L, Godsoe, W, Gonzalez, A, Hellmann, JJ, Holt, RD, Huth, A, Johst, K, Krug, CB, Leadley, PW, Palmer, SCF, Pantel, JH, Schmitz, A, Zollner, PA & Travis, JMJ 2016, 'Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change', Science, vol. 353, no. 6304, aad8466. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad8466

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abstract = "New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species' responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.",

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AU - Pe'er, G.

AU - Singer, A.

AU - Bridle, J. R.

AU - Crozier, L. G.

AU - De Meester, L.

AU - Godsoe, W.

AU - Gonzalez, A.

AU - Hellmann, J. J.

AU - Holt, R. D.

AU - Huth, A.

AU - Johst, K.

AU - Krug, C. B.

AU - Leadley, P. W.

AU - Palmer, S. C.F.

AU - Pantel, J. H.

AU - Schmitz, A.

AU - Zollner, P. A.

AU - Travis, J. M.J.

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Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

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