TY - CONF
T1 - Impact of climate change on maize grown in the Brazilian cerrado
AU - Camilo, Jennifer Alves
AU - De Lelis Teixeira de Andrade, Camilo
AU - Amaral, Tales Antônio
AU - Tigges, Christoph Hermann Passos
AU - De Melo, Marina Luciana Abreu
AU - Chan, Chou Sin
AU - Garcia y Garcia, Axel
PY - 2018/1/1
Y1 - 2018/1/1
N2 - Crops are subject to instabilities of climatic conditions that affect yield. Maize is very sensitive to factors like temperature, solar radiation and rainfall. The objective of this work was to evaluate, using crop growth models, the effects of climate change on maize grain yield produced under rainfed conditions. Two global circulation models, HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5, coupled to the regional model Eta, were used to generate projections of changes in maximum and minimum air temperature, solar radiation and rainfall for conditions in southeastern Brazil. The CSM-CERES-Maize model was then used to evaluate the effect of climate changes on rainfed maize grain yield. For each combination of global and regional circulation models, two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios were used: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The combined use of global circulation and crop growth models allowed us to estimate the expected average grain yield of corn as affected by future climate. The simulated results indicated that, even at best sowing dates, considerable reduction in maize grain yield may occur. Our simulated results also indicated that the largest grain yield reductions may occur for future climate scenarios from 2071 to the end of the 21st century.
AB - Crops are subject to instabilities of climatic conditions that affect yield. Maize is very sensitive to factors like temperature, solar radiation and rainfall. The objective of this work was to evaluate, using crop growth models, the effects of climate change on maize grain yield produced under rainfed conditions. Two global circulation models, HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5, coupled to the regional model Eta, were used to generate projections of changes in maximum and minimum air temperature, solar radiation and rainfall for conditions in southeastern Brazil. The CSM-CERES-Maize model was then used to evaluate the effect of climate changes on rainfed maize grain yield. For each combination of global and regional circulation models, two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios were used: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The combined use of global circulation and crop growth models allowed us to estimate the expected average grain yield of corn as affected by future climate. The simulated results indicated that, even at best sowing dates, considerable reduction in maize grain yield may occur. Our simulated results also indicated that the largest grain yield reductions may occur for future climate scenarios from 2071 to the end of the 21st century.
KW - Corn
KW - Global warming
KW - Modeling
KW - Yield
KW - Zea mays L
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85054179860&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85054179860&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.13031/aim.201800967
DO - 10.13031/aim.201800967
M3 - Paper
AN - SCOPUS:85054179860
T2 - ASABE 2018 Annual International Meeting
Y2 - 29 July 2018 through 1 August 2018
ER -