Immigrant Networks, Productive Capacity and Trade in ICT Goods

Information and communication technology (ICT) goods are central to digital transformation, technological upgrading and participation in global production networks. Yet relatively little is known about whether immigrant networks shape international trade in these knowledge-intensive goods. Using bilateral panel data for 172 countries over the 2000–2021 period, we estimate gravity-based specifications, Tobit models and linear fixed-effects models for ICT goods trade. The results show a positive and statistically significant relationship between immigrant networks and ICT goods trade, especially exports. The export relationship remains positive after controlling for productive capacity, while the import relationship weakens. Interaction models further show that immigrant networks are more strongly related to ICT goods trade when immigrants' home countries have greater ICT export capacity. Marginal-effect estimates indicate that the relationship operates through both the extensive and intensive margins of trade. The findings suggest that immigrant networks are especially relevant for ICT goods trade when cross-border social and commercial ties connect destination markets to technologically capable home countries.