This study details the development and application of a method for estimating economic feasibility of hydropower developments in the state of Minnesota, along with the associated uncertainty of the estimate. The uncertainty analysis is performed using input parameter probability distributions in combination with a Monte-Carlo-type simulation, while economic feasibility is calculated using an updated version of the hydropower survey program HYFEAS, developed in a previous study on site-feasibility in Minnesota. The result of the work is the computer program HYFEAS2, written to combine the routines of HYFEAS with the uncertainty analysis developed as part of this study. Additionally, equations have been derived to take the place of cost estimating techniques used in the previous program, based upon historical data which has since become available. HYFEAS2 is applied to 65 potential sites in the state of Minnesota, which were identified as having good or marginal feasibility by the authors of HYFEAS. Economic feasibility and the associated uncertainty is reported at four total energy values, in an effort to estimate the rate which most reasonably allows the majority of the sites to be developed.
|Published - Jul 1991