Human-driven landscapes of fear for Africa's largest terrestrial predator in human-used conservation landscapes

Large carnivores are increasingly threatened by human pressure, and protected areas are key to their persistence. In Kenya, community-owned conservancies integrate conservation with pastoralism, raising the question on how large carnivores function in these mixed-use landscapes. Here, we assess lions (Panthera leo) in mixed-use landscapes to optimise coexistence strategies. We analysed nine years (2015–2023) of systematic lion and livestock sightings across seven conservancies in the Mara Ecosystem using Bayesian spatial models. We assessed spatial and seasonal effects of livestock (cattle, sheep and goats), human settlements, and environmental factors on lion presence and abundance, while accounting for spatial autocorrelation and controlling for survey effort. We addressed variation in detectability through a targeted sensitivity analysis restricted to cattle-free days. Cattle relative abundance was the strongest negative predictor and significantly reduced the probability of lion presence, even on days when cattle were absent, suggesting long-term spatial avoidance rather than temporary concealment. Lion presence was further suppressed by other livestock (sheep and goats) and proximity to human settlements. Our findings highlight that lions strongly avoid human activities in mixed-use landscapes, potentially increasing competition and conflict among prides in areas with lower human impact, which may eventually affect population demography and density. Strategies such as spatial zoning to restrict grazing in key habitats, enforcement of grazing boundaries, and reducing cattle numbers in the conservancies are practical options to mitigate conflict and help support large carnivore conservation in shared landscapes.