TY - JOUR
T1 - How much do electric drive vehicles matter to future U.S. emissions?
AU - Babaee, Samaneh
AU - Nagpure, Ajay S.
AU - Decarolis, Joseph F.
PY - 2014/2/4
Y1 - 2014/2/4
N2 - Hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles - known collectively as electric drive vehicles (EDVs) - may represent a clean and affordable option to meet growing U.S. light duty vehicle (LDV) demand. The goal of this study is 2-fold: identify the conditions under which EDVs achieve high LDV market penetration in the U.S. and quantify the associated change in CO2, SO2, and NOX emissions through midcentury. We employ the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES), a bottom-up energy system model, along with a U.S. data set developed for this analysis. To characterize EDV deployment through 2050, varying assumptions related to crude oil and natural gas prices, a CO2 policy, a federal renewable portfolio standard, and vehicle battery cost were combined to form 108 different scenarios. Across these scenarios, oil prices and battery cost have the biggest effect on EDV deployment. The model results do not demonstrate a clear and consistent trend toward lower system-wide emissions as EDV deployment increases. In addition to the trade-off between lower tailpipe and higher electric sector emissions associated with plug-in vehicles, the scenarios produce system-wide emissions effects that often mask the effect of EDV deployment.
AB - Hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles - known collectively as electric drive vehicles (EDVs) - may represent a clean and affordable option to meet growing U.S. light duty vehicle (LDV) demand. The goal of this study is 2-fold: identify the conditions under which EDVs achieve high LDV market penetration in the U.S. and quantify the associated change in CO2, SO2, and NOX emissions through midcentury. We employ the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES), a bottom-up energy system model, along with a U.S. data set developed for this analysis. To characterize EDV deployment through 2050, varying assumptions related to crude oil and natural gas prices, a CO2 policy, a federal renewable portfolio standard, and vehicle battery cost were combined to form 108 different scenarios. Across these scenarios, oil prices and battery cost have the biggest effect on EDV deployment. The model results do not demonstrate a clear and consistent trend toward lower system-wide emissions as EDV deployment increases. In addition to the trade-off between lower tailpipe and higher electric sector emissions associated with plug-in vehicles, the scenarios produce system-wide emissions effects that often mask the effect of EDV deployment.
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U2 - 10.1021/es4045677
DO - 10.1021/es4045677
M3 - Article
C2 - 24386958
AN - SCOPUS:84893550284
SN - 0013-936X
VL - 48
SP - 1382
EP - 1390
JO - Environmental Science and Technology
JF - Environmental Science and Technology
IS - 3
ER -