Holocene insolation and sea surface temperature influences on the polar front jet stream and precipitation in the midcontinental United States

Variability in the source and seasonality of precipitation in the midcontinental United States during the Holocene was investigated using isotopic and sedimentological data from Martin Lake, northeastern Indiana, USA. Between 7100 and 4000 years before present (yr BP; present = 1950 CE), high δ¹⁸O_cal and δ¹³C_cal values with low variability indicate that moisture was predominantly derived from subtropical, southerly sources and delivered primarily during the warm season. Mean state shifts toward lower δ¹⁸O_cal and δ¹³C_cal occurred at ca. 4000 and 2550 yr BP, respectively, indicating an increase in northerly-sourced cold-season precipitation during the Late Holocene (i.e., the past 4200 years) and a subsequent reduction in warm season duration after 2550 yr BP. Record low %lithics from ca. 5000 to 4000 yr BP indicates major reductions in warm-season rain storms, consistent with regional evidence of drought at this time. An increase in the amplitude of centennial-scale variability in δ¹⁸O_cal, δ¹³C_cal, and %lithics after 1900 yr BP indicates greater precipitation source variability during the Common Era. During this interval, precipitation fluctuated between southerly-sourced, convective rainstorms when the Northern Hemisphere (NH) was warm (e.g., during the Medieval Climate Anomaly; 700–1000 yr BP) and northerly-sourced rain and snow when the NH was cool (e.g., during the Little Ice Age; 150–550 yr BP). These trends, especially the change at ca. 4000 yr BP, are consistent with other North American paleoclimate records that collectively suggest a continental-scale shift in precipitation seasonality during the Middle to Late Holocene transition as the tropical Pacific Ocean transitioned from La Niña-like conditions to a more El Niño-like mean state. Concurrent NH cooling and persistent El Niño-like conditions during the Late Holocene would have favored a southerly polar front jet stream with enhanced ridge and trough atmospheric circulation over North America – conditions resembling the positive mode of the Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA). This would have increased interactions between high-latitude and subtropical airmasses over the midcontinent, increasing the proportion of northerly precipitation with low δ¹⁸O delivered during the cold season (i.e., snowfall) and during extended periods with +PNA-like atmospheric circulation (e.g., the Little Ice Age).