Growth kinetics for shelf-life prediction: Theory and practice

Predictive microbiology can be used to determine and predict the shelf-life of perishable foods under commercial distribution conditions based on microbial growth kinetics. This paper presents general microbial growth kinetics with the Monod model and the Gompertz function. Additional models are given to describe effects of food composition (e. g. a_w) and environmental conditions (e.g. temperature, gas atmosphere) as well as their interaction on the growth kinetic parameters (lag time and specific growth rate). These models can be used to predict the time to reach a critical level under any constant conditions within the range tested. A combination of microbial kinetics with an engineering accumulation approach can be used to predict the final microbial level in a food, or the loss of shelf-life, for any known time-temperature sequence, if there is no history effect or the history effect is negligible. A time-temperature indicator, could be used for predicting the remaining shelf-life of perishable foods under any distribution condition based on microbial growth kinetics.