Forecasting and Evaluating Network Growth

David Levinson, Feng Xie, Norah M. Oca

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

14 Scopus citations

Abstract

This research assesses the implications of existing trends on future network investment, comparing alternative scenarios concerning budgets and investment rules. The main scenarios compare "stated decision rules", processes encoded in flowcharts and weights developed from official documents or by discussion with agency staff, with "revealed decision rules", weights estimated statistically based on observed historical behavior. This research specifies the processes necessary to run the network forecasting models with various decision rules. We find that given the relatively small amount of funds available for network growth in a mature system, alternative decision rules make only small differences in overall system performance, though they direct investments to very different locations and affect the trip time and spatial accessibility in a significantly different way.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)239-262
Number of pages24
JournalNetworks and Spatial Economics
Volume12
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 1 2012

Keywords

  • Decision-making
  • Evaluation
  • Forecasting
  • Network growth
  • The Twin Cities

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