Fitting probability models to population dynamics data

Yosef Cohen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Methods for modeling population dynamics in probability using the generalized point process approach are developed. The life history of these populations is such that seasonal reproduction occurs during a short time. Several models are developed and analyzed. Data about two species: colonial spiders (Stegodyphus dumicola) and a migratory bird (wood thrush, Hylocichla mustelina) are used to estimate model parameters with appropriate log maximum likelihood functions. For the spiders, the model is fitted to provide evolutionary feasible colony size based on maximum likelihood estimates of fecundity and survival data. For the migratory bird species, a maximum likelihood estimates are derived for the fecundity and survival rates of young and adult birds and immigration rate. The presented approach allows computation of quantities of interest such as probability of extinction and average time to extinction.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1613-1619
Number of pages7
JournalEcological Modelling
Issue number13-14
StatePublished - Jul 17 2009


  • Generalized point process
  • MLE
  • Social spiders (Stegodyphus dumicola)
  • Wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina)


Dive into the research topics of 'Fitting probability models to population dynamics data'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this