Extinction risk modeling predicts range-wide differences of climate change impact on Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis)

The Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis, or Kbb), a federally endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in decline due to habitat loss, can be further threatened by climate change. Evaluating how climate shapes the population trend of the Kbb can help in the development of adaptive management plans. Current demographic models for the Kbb incorporate in either a density-dependent or density-independent manner. We instead created mixed density-dependent and -independent (hereafter “endo-exogenous”) models for Kbbs based on long-term count data of five isolated populations in the upper Midwest, United States during two flight periods (May to June and July to August) to understand how the growth rates were related to previous population densities and abiotic environmental conditions, including various macro- and micro-climatic variables. Our endo-exogenous extinction risk models showed that both density-dependent and -independent components were vital drivers of the historical population trends. However, climate change impacts were not always detrimental to Kbbs. Despite the decrease of population growth rate with higher overwinter temperatures and spring precipitations in the first generation, the growth rate increased with higher summer temperatures and precipitations in the second generation. We concluded that finer spatiotemporally scaled models could be more rewarding in guiding the decision-making process of Kbb restoration under climate change.