Exploration of associations between governance and economics and country level foot-and-mouth disease status by using Bayesian model averaging

R. B. Garabed, W. O. Johnson, J. Gill, A. M. Perez, M. C. Thurmond

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

8 Scopus citations

Abstract

Using Bayesian model averaging, we quantify associations of governance and economic health with country level presence of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and estimate the probability of the presence of FMD in each country from 1997 to 2005. The Bayesian model averaging accounted for countries' previous FMD status and other possible confounders, as well as uncertainty about the 'true' model, and provided accurate predictions (90% specificity and 80% sensitivity). This model represents a novel approach to predicting FMD, and other conditions, on a global scale and in identifying important risk factors that can be applied to global policy and allocation of resources for disease control.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)699-722
Number of pages24
JournalJournal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society
Volume171
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 1 2008

Keywords

  • Animal disease
  • Economic health
  • Expert opinion
  • Political voice
  • Prediction

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