TY - JOUR
T1 - Evaluation of work resumption strategies after COVID-19 reopening in the Chinese city of Shenzhen
T2 - a mathematical modeling study
AU - Bai, Lu
AU - Lu, Haonan
AU - Hu, Hailin
AU - Smith, M. Kumi
AU - Harripersaud, Katherine
AU - Lipkova, Veronika
AU - Wen, Yujin
AU - Guo, Xiuyan
AU - Peng, Wei
AU - Liu, Chenwei
AU - Shen, Mingwang
AU - Shen, Alfred Chixiong
AU - Zhang, Lei
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Royal Society for Public Health
PY - 2021/4/1
Y1 - 2021/4/1
N2 - Objectives: As China is facing a potential second wave of the epidemic, we reviewed and evaluated the intervention measures implemented in a major metropolitan city, Shenzhen, during the early phase of Wuhan lockdown. Study design: Based on the classic SEITR model and combined with population mobility, a compartmental model was constructed to simulate the transmission of COVID-19 and disease progression in the Shenzhen population. Methods: Based on published epidemiological data on COVID-19 and population mobility data from Baidu Qianxi, we constructed a compartmental model to evaluate the impact of work and traffic resumption on the epidemic in Shenzhen in various scenarios. Results: Imported cases account for most (58.6%) of the early reported cases in Shenzhen. We demonstrated that with strict inflow population control and a high level of mask usage after work resumption, various resumptions resulted in only an insignificant difference in the number of cumulative infections. Shenzhen may experience this second wave of infections approximately two weeks after the traffic resumption if the incidence risk in Hubei is high at the moment of resumption. Conclusion: Regardless of the work resumption strategy adopted in Shenzhen, the risk of a resurgence of COVID-19 after its reopening was limited. The strict control of imported cases and extensive use of facial masks play a key role in COVID-19 prevention.
AB - Objectives: As China is facing a potential second wave of the epidemic, we reviewed and evaluated the intervention measures implemented in a major metropolitan city, Shenzhen, during the early phase of Wuhan lockdown. Study design: Based on the classic SEITR model and combined with population mobility, a compartmental model was constructed to simulate the transmission of COVID-19 and disease progression in the Shenzhen population. Methods: Based on published epidemiological data on COVID-19 and population mobility data from Baidu Qianxi, we constructed a compartmental model to evaluate the impact of work and traffic resumption on the epidemic in Shenzhen in various scenarios. Results: Imported cases account for most (58.6%) of the early reported cases in Shenzhen. We demonstrated that with strict inflow population control and a high level of mask usage after work resumption, various resumptions resulted in only an insignificant difference in the number of cumulative infections. Shenzhen may experience this second wave of infections approximately two weeks after the traffic resumption if the incidence risk in Hubei is high at the moment of resumption. Conclusion: Regardless of the work resumption strategy adopted in Shenzhen, the risk of a resurgence of COVID-19 after its reopening was limited. The strict control of imported cases and extensive use of facial masks play a key role in COVID-19 prevention.
KW - Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
KW - Population mobility
KW - Shenzhen
KW - Traffic resumption
KW - Work resumption
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U2 - 10.1016/j.puhe.2020.12.018
DO - 10.1016/j.puhe.2020.12.018
M3 - Article
C2 - 33706208
AN - SCOPUS:85101837133
SN - 0033-3506
VL - 193
SP - 17
EP - 22
JO - Public Health
JF - Public Health
ER -