Estimates of tidal-marsh bird densities using Bayesian networks

Whitney A. Wiest, Maureen D. Correll, Bruce G. Marcot, Brian J. Olsen, Chris S. Elphick, Thomas P. Hodgman, Glenn R Guntenspergen, W. Gregory Shriver

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Conserving tidal-marsh bird communities requires strategies to address continuing pressures from human development to the effects of increasing rates of sea-level rise. Knowing tidal-marsh bird distributions and population sizes are important for developing these strategies. In the Northeast United States, where estimates of sea-level rise are 3 times higher than the global average, 5 bird species are tidal-marsh specialists: clapper rail (Rallus crepitans), willet (Tringa semipalmata), Nelson's sparrow (Ammospiza nelsoni), saltmarsh sparrow (A. caudacuta), and seaside sparrow (A. maritima). We used a regional marsh bird survey to develop Bayesian network models to identify factors that influence patch-scale species density and to estimate regional population sizes. We modeled species density as a function of habitat covariates at the patch, local, landscape, and regional spatial scales. Densities were most sensitive to patch location and dimension, patch geomorphic setting, indices of human development, and changes in mean sea level. We estimated 110,000 clapper rails (95% CI = 61,000–159,000), 111,000 willets (95% CI = 70,000–152,000), 7,000 Nelson's sparrows (95% CI = 4,000–10,000), 60,000 saltmarsh sparrows (95% CI = 40,000–80,000), and 234,000 seaside sparrows (95% CI = 112,000–356,000) from the United States–Canada border to, and including, the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, USA. Our abundance estimates can be used to identify priority conservation areas at multiple geographic scales and our models help identify key habitat and landscape components for tidal-marsh restoration and management to benefit tidal-marsh birds and can be modified for other species.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)109-120
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of Wildlife Management
Volume83
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2019

Fingerprint

salt marshes
Passeriformes
marsh
bird
birds
sea level
human development
saltmarsh
population size
Tringa
Chesapeake Bay
habitats
marshes
habitat
mouth
conservation areas
protected area
Ammodramus caudacutus

Keywords

  • Bayesian network
  • Northeast USA
  • density
  • model-based
  • monitoring
  • predictive model
  • tidal-marsh birds

Cite this

Wiest, W. A., Correll, M. D., Marcot, B. G., Olsen, B. J., Elphick, C. S., Hodgman, T. P., ... Shriver, W. G. (2019). Estimates of tidal-marsh bird densities using Bayesian networks. Journal of Wildlife Management, 83(1), 109-120. https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.21567

Estimates of tidal-marsh bird densities using Bayesian networks. / Wiest, Whitney A.; Correll, Maureen D.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Olsen, Brian J.; Elphick, Chris S.; Hodgman, Thomas P.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R; Shriver, W. Gregory.

In: Journal of Wildlife Management, Vol. 83, No. 1, 01.01.2019, p. 109-120.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Wiest, WA, Correll, MD, Marcot, BG, Olsen, BJ, Elphick, CS, Hodgman, TP, Guntenspergen, GR & Shriver, WG 2019, 'Estimates of tidal-marsh bird densities using Bayesian networks', Journal of Wildlife Management, vol. 83, no. 1, pp. 109-120. https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.21567
Wiest WA, Correll MD, Marcot BG, Olsen BJ, Elphick CS, Hodgman TP et al. Estimates of tidal-marsh bird densities using Bayesian networks. Journal of Wildlife Management. 2019 Jan 1;83(1):109-120. https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.21567
Wiest, Whitney A. ; Correll, Maureen D. ; Marcot, Bruce G. ; Olsen, Brian J. ; Elphick, Chris S. ; Hodgman, Thomas P. ; Guntenspergen, Glenn R ; Shriver, W. Gregory. / Estimates of tidal-marsh bird densities using Bayesian networks. In: Journal of Wildlife Management. 2019 ; Vol. 83, No. 1. pp. 109-120.
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