TY - JOUR
T1 - Errors in availability estimation by 2-state models of 3-state systems
AU - Watanabe, Yoichi
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by the Office of Magnetic Fusion in the U.S. Department of Energy.
PY - 1987
Y1 - 1987
N2 - Errors in steady-state availability estimation by 2-state models of one-unit systems which can be represented by 3-state Markovian models are evaluated. It is found that, except for very specific cases, the 2-state models result in unacceptably large error for the case in which degraded systems are not repaired; hence, multistate models should be used. On the other hand, the 2-state models can present a reasonable accuracy for the cases in which degraded systems are repaired. It is recommended that analyst select better models (2-state or 3-state models) by first estimating the model errors as well as the error due to data uncertainty.
AB - Errors in steady-state availability estimation by 2-state models of one-unit systems which can be represented by 3-state Markovian models are evaluated. It is found that, except for very specific cases, the 2-state models result in unacceptably large error for the case in which degraded systems are not repaired; hence, multistate models should be used. On the other hand, the 2-state models can present a reasonable accuracy for the cases in which degraded systems are repaired. It is recommended that analyst select better models (2-state or 3-state models) by first estimating the model errors as well as the error due to data uncertainty.
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U2 - 10.1016/0143-8174(87)90100-4
DO - 10.1016/0143-8174(87)90100-4
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0023248988
SN - 0143-8174
VL - 18
SP - 223
EP - 235
JO - Reliability Engineering
JF - Reliability Engineering
IS - 3
ER -