Ending the Epidemic in America Will Not Happen if the Status Quo Continues: Modeled Projections for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Incidence in 6 US Cities

Bohdan Nosyk; Xiao Zang; Emanuel Krebs; Jeong Eun Min; Czarina N. Behrends; Carlos Del Rio; Julia C. Dombrowski; Daniel J. Feaster; Matthew Golden; Brandon D.L. Marshall; Shruti H. Mehta; Lisa R. Metsch; Bruce R. Schackman; Steven Shoptaw; Steffanie A. Strathdee

doi:10.1093/cid/ciz1015

Ending the Epidemic in America Will Not Happen if the Status Quo Continues: Modeled Projections for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Incidence in 6 US Cities

Bohdan Nosyk, Xiao Zang, Emanuel Krebs, Jeong Eun Min, Czarina N. Behrends, Carlos Del Rio, Julia C. Dombrowski, Daniel J. Feaster, Matthew Golden, Brandon D.L. Marshall, Shruti H. Mehta, Lisa R. Metsch, Bruce R. Schackman, Steven Shoptaw, Steffanie A. Strathdee

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

21 Scopus citations

Abstract

We estimated 10-year (2020-2030) trajectories for human immunodeficiency virus incidence in 6 US cities. Estimated incidence will only decrease in 2 of 6 cities, with the overall population-weighted incidence decreasing 3.1% (95% credible interval [CrI],-1.0% to 8.5%) by 2025, and 4.3% (95% CrI,-2.6% to 12.7%) by 2030 across cities. Targeted, context-specific combination implementation strategies will be necessary to meet the newly established national targets.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	2195-2198
Number of pages	4
Journal	Clinical Infectious Diseases
Volume	69
Issue number	12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciz1015
State	Published - Nov 27 2019
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 The Author(s).

Keywords

"Ending the HIV epidemic" plan
HIV/AIDS
dynamic transmission model
epidemiological projection

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Publisher link

10.1093/cid/ciz1015

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Nosyk, B., Zang, X., Krebs, E., Min, J. E., Behrends, C. N., Del Rio, C., Dombrowski, J. C., Feaster, D. J., Golden, M., Marshall, B. D. L., Mehta, S. H., Metsch, L. R., Schackman, B. R., Shoptaw, S., & Strathdee, S. A. (2019). Ending the Epidemic in America Will Not Happen if the Status Quo Continues: Modeled Projections for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Incidence in 6 US Cities. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 69(12), 2195-2198. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciz1015

Nosyk, B, Zang, X, Krebs, E, Min, JE, Behrends, CN, Del Rio, C, Dombrowski, JC, Feaster, DJ, Golden, M, Marshall, BDL, Mehta, SH, Metsch, LR, Schackman, BR, Shoptaw, S & Strathdee, SA 2019, 'Ending the Epidemic in America Will Not Happen if the Status Quo Continues: Modeled Projections for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Incidence in 6 US Cities', Clinical Infectious Diseases, vol. 69, no. 12, pp. 2195-2198. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciz1015

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abstract = "We estimated 10-year (2020-2030) trajectories for human immunodeficiency virus incidence in 6 US cities. Estimated incidence will only decrease in 2 of 6 cities, with the overall population-weighted incidence decreasing 3.1% (95% credible interval [CrI],-1.0% to 8.5%) by 2025, and 4.3% (95% CrI,-2.6% to 12.7%) by 2030 across cities. Targeted, context-specific combination implementation strategies will be necessary to meet the newly established national targets.",

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Ending the Epidemic in America Will Not Happen if the Status Quo Continues: Modeled Projections for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Incidence in 6 US Cities

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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