El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium

Kim M. Cobb, Christopher D. Charles, Hai Cheng, R. Lawrence Edwards

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

620 Scopus citations

Abstract

Any assessment of future climate change requires knowledge of the full range of natural variability in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Here we splice together fossil-coral oxygen isotopic records from Palmyra Island in the tropical Pacific Ocean to provide 30-150-year windows of tropical Pacific climate variability within the last 1,100 years. The records indicate mean climate conditions in the central tropical Pacific ranging from relatively cool and dry during the tenth century to increasingly warmer and wetter climate in the twentieth century. But the corals also document a broad range of ENSO behaviour that correlates poorly with these estimates of mean climate. The most intense ENSO activity within the reconstruction occurred during the mid-seventeenth century. Taken together, the coral data imply that the majority of ENSO variability over the last millennium may have arisen from dynamics internal to the ENSO system itself.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)271-276
Number of pages6
JournalNature
Volume424
Issue number6946
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 17 2003

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