Early Metabolic Measures Predict Long-term Insulin Independence in Recipients of Total Pancreatectomy and Islet Autotransplantation

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Background. Although diabetes after total pancreatectomy and islet autotransplantation (TP-IAT) is one of the biggest concerns for TP-IAT recipients and physicians, reliable prediction of post-TP-IAT glycemic control remains unestablished. This study was conducted to identify early predictors of insulin independence and goal glycemic control by hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) ≤ 6.5% after TP-IAT. Methods. In this single-center, retrospective study, patients who underwent TP-IAT (n = 227) were reviewed for simple metabolic markers or surrogate indices of β-cell function obtained 3 mo after TP-IAT as part of standard clinical testing. Long-term metabolic success was defined as (1) insulin independence and (2) HbA1c ≤ 6.5% 1, 3, and 5 y after TP-IAT. Single- and multivariate modeling used 3-mo markers to predict successful outcomes. Results. Of the 227 recipients, median age 31 y, 30% male, 1 y after TP-IAT insulin independence, and HbA1c ≤ 6.5% were present in 39.6% and 72.5%, respectively. In single-predictor analyses, most of the metabolic markers successfully discriminated between those attaining and not attaining metabolic goals. Using the best model selected by random forests analysis, we accurately predicted 1-y insulin independence and goal HbA1c control in 77.3% and 86.4% of the patients, respectively. A simpler “clinically feasible” model using only transplanted islet dose and BETA-2 score allowed easier prediction at a small accuracy loss (74.1% and 82.9%, respectively). Conclusions. Metabolic testing measures performed 3 mo after TP-IAT were highly associated with later diabetes outcomes and provided a reliable prediction model, giving valuable prognostic insight early after TP-IAT and help to identify recipients who require early intervention.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)E1561
JournalTransplantation Direct
Issue number1
StatePublished - Dec 12 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Transplantation Direct. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CCBY), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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