Downscaling Last Glacial Maximum climate over southern Africa

Francois A. Engelbrecht; Curtis W. Marean; Richard M. Cowling; Christien J. Engelbrecht; Frank H. Neumann; Louis Scott; Ramapulana Nkoana; David O'Neal; Erich Fisher; Eric Shook; Janet Franklin; Marcus Thatcher; John L. McGregor; Jacobus Van der Merwe; Zane Dedekind; Mark Difford

doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.105879

Downscaling Last Glacial Maximum climate over southern Africa

Francois A. Engelbrecht, Curtis W. Marean, Richard M. Cowling, Christien J. Engelbrecht, Frank H. Neumann, Louis Scott, Ramapulana Nkoana, David O'Neal, Erich Fisher, Eric Shook, Janet Franklin, Marcus Thatcher, John L. McGregor, Jacobus Van der Merwe, Zane Dedekind, Mark Difford

Geography, Environment and Society

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Abstract

We conducted the first dynamic downscaling of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate over southern Africa using a regional climate model. Eight coupled global climate model (CGCM) projections of LGM climate were downscaled to 8 km resolution, and compared to a downscaling of present-day climate. It is projected that temperatures were significantly lower during the LGM compared to the present-day, with annual average temperatures 4–6 °C lower along the eastern escarpment, south-north aligned Cape Fold Mountains and western escarpment. Southern Africa is projected to have been generally wetter during the LGM, with a significant extension in the northward reach of frontal rainfall. The largest rainfall increases are projected for the south-north aligned Cape Fold Mountains and the western escarpment of South Africa, but with rainfall decreases projected for the Cape south coast region. Rainfall seasonality is projected to have been significantly different from that of the present-day, with an all-year rainfall region plausibly extending as far north and east as the present-day Free State and Gauteng provinces of South Africa. Evaluations of the downscalings against key published proxy records for the LGM from southern Africa suggest good agreement and few deviations.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	105879
Journal	Quaternary Science Reviews
Volume	226
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.105879
State	Published - Dec 15 2019

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This research was supported by National Research Foundation (NRF) African Origins Platform Funding (Grant Numbers: 82634 , 85903 ). Any opinions, findings, and conclusions are those of the author(s) and the NRF does not accept any liability in regard thereto. The lead author received support from the NRF in South Africa through its Incentive Funding for Rated Researchers. Supplementary funding was provided by the Hyde Family Foundations , Institute of Human Origins , and the National Science Foundation (NSF) BCS-0524087 and BCS-1138073 (to Marean). Marean recognizes the support of a grant from the John Templeton Foundation to the Institute of Human Origins at Arizona State University . The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the John Templeton Foundation or any other granting agency. The model simulations were performed on the super computers of the Centre for High performance Computing (CHPC) in South Africa and the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE) Stampede system at the Texas Advanced Computing Centre (TACC). The latter allocation was available through the NS grant number ACI-1548562, project allocation number DBS140003. The climate simulations were partially funded through CSIR Parliamentary Grant and Thematic funding related to the development of the Variable-resolution Earth System Model (VrESM). We acknowledge the modelling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP5 multi-model dataset.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019

Keywords

Climate dynamics
Palaeo-agulhas plain
Palaeoclimate modelling
Pleistocene
Rainfall seasonality
Regional climate modelling
Southern Africa
Vegetation dynamics

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.105879

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Engelbrecht, F. A., Marean, C. W., Cowling, R. M., Engelbrecht, C. J., Neumann, F. H., Scott, L., Nkoana, R., O'Neal, D., Fisher, E., Shook, E., Franklin, J., Thatcher, M., McGregor, J. L., Van der Merwe, J., Dedekind, Z., & Difford, M. (2019). Downscaling Last Glacial Maximum climate over southern Africa. Quaternary Science Reviews, 226, Article 105879. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.105879

Engelbrecht, FA, Marean, CW, Cowling, RM, Engelbrecht, CJ, Neumann, FH, Scott, L, Nkoana, R, O'Neal, D, Fisher, E, Shook, E, Franklin, J, Thatcher, M, McGregor, JL, Van der Merwe, J, Dedekind, Z & Difford, M 2019, 'Downscaling Last Glacial Maximum climate over southern Africa', Quaternary Science Reviews, vol. 226, 105879. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.105879

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title = "Downscaling Last Glacial Maximum climate over southern Africa",

abstract = "We conducted the first dynamic downscaling of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate over southern Africa using a regional climate model. Eight coupled global climate model (CGCM) projections of LGM climate were downscaled to 8 km resolution, and compared to a downscaling of present-day climate. It is projected that temperatures were significantly lower during the LGM compared to the present-day, with annual average temperatures 4–6 °C lower along the eastern escarpment, south-north aligned Cape Fold Mountains and western escarpment. Southern Africa is projected to have been generally wetter during the LGM, with a significant extension in the northward reach of frontal rainfall. The largest rainfall increases are projected for the south-north aligned Cape Fold Mountains and the western escarpment of South Africa, but with rainfall decreases projected for the Cape south coast region. Rainfall seasonality is projected to have been significantly different from that of the present-day, with an all-year rainfall region plausibly extending as far north and east as the present-day Free State and Gauteng provinces of South Africa. Evaluations of the downscalings against key published proxy records for the LGM from southern Africa suggest good agreement and few deviations.",

keywords = "Climate dynamics, Palaeo-agulhas plain, Palaeoclimate modelling, Pleistocene, Rainfall seasonality, Regional climate modelling, Southern Africa, Vegetation dynamics",

author = "Engelbrecht, {Francois A.} and Marean, {Curtis W.} and Cowling, {Richard M.} and Engelbrecht, {Christien J.} and Neumann, {Frank H.} and Louis Scott and Ramapulana Nkoana and David O'Neal and Erich Fisher and Eric Shook and Janet Franklin and Marcus Thatcher and McGregor, {John L.} and {Van der Merwe}, Jacobus and Zane Dedekind and Mark Difford",

note = "Funding Information: This research was supported by National Research Foundation (NRF) African Origins Platform Funding (Grant Numbers: 82634 , 85903 ). Any opinions, findings, and conclusions are those of the author(s) and the NRF does not accept any liability in regard thereto. The lead author received support from the NRF in South Africa through its Incentive Funding for Rated Researchers. Supplementary funding was provided by the Hyde Family Foundations , Institute of Human Origins , and the National Science Foundation (NSF) BCS-0524087 and BCS-1138073 (to Marean). Marean recognizes the support of a grant from the John Templeton Foundation to the Institute of Human Origins at Arizona State University . The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the John Templeton Foundation or any other granting agency. The model simulations were performed on the super computers of the Centre for High performance Computing (CHPC) in South Africa and the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE) Stampede system at the Texas Advanced Computing Centre (TACC). The latter allocation was available through the NS grant number ACI-1548562, project allocation number DBS140003. The climate simulations were partially funded through CSIR Parliamentary Grant and Thematic funding related to the development of the Variable-resolution Earth System Model (VrESM). We acknowledge the modelling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP5 multi-model dataset. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019",

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doi = "10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.105879",

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AU - Engelbrecht, Francois A.

AU - Marean, Curtis W.

AU - Cowling, Richard M.

AU - Engelbrecht, Christien J.

AU - Neumann, Frank H.

AU - Scott, Louis

AU - Nkoana, Ramapulana

AU - O'Neal, David

AU - Fisher, Erich

AU - Shook, Eric

AU - Franklin, Janet

AU - Thatcher, Marcus

AU - McGregor, John L.

AU - Van der Merwe, Jacobus

AU - Dedekind, Zane

AU - Difford, Mark

N1 - Funding Information: This research was supported by National Research Foundation (NRF) African Origins Platform Funding (Grant Numbers: 82634 , 85903 ). Any opinions, findings, and conclusions are those of the author(s) and the NRF does not accept any liability in regard thereto. The lead author received support from the NRF in South Africa through its Incentive Funding for Rated Researchers. Supplementary funding was provided by the Hyde Family Foundations , Institute of Human Origins , and the National Science Foundation (NSF) BCS-0524087 and BCS-1138073 (to Marean). Marean recognizes the support of a grant from the John Templeton Foundation to the Institute of Human Origins at Arizona State University . The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the John Templeton Foundation or any other granting agency. The model simulations were performed on the super computers of the Centre for High performance Computing (CHPC) in South Africa and the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE) Stampede system at the Texas Advanced Computing Centre (TACC). The latter allocation was available through the NS grant number ACI-1548562, project allocation number DBS140003. The climate simulations were partially funded through CSIR Parliamentary Grant and Thematic funding related to the development of the Variable-resolution Earth System Model (VrESM). We acknowledge the modelling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP5 multi-model dataset. Publisher Copyright: © 2019

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AB - We conducted the first dynamic downscaling of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate over southern Africa using a regional climate model. Eight coupled global climate model (CGCM) projections of LGM climate were downscaled to 8 km resolution, and compared to a downscaling of present-day climate. It is projected that temperatures were significantly lower during the LGM compared to the present-day, with annual average temperatures 4–6 °C lower along the eastern escarpment, south-north aligned Cape Fold Mountains and western escarpment. Southern Africa is projected to have been generally wetter during the LGM, with a significant extension in the northward reach of frontal rainfall. The largest rainfall increases are projected for the south-north aligned Cape Fold Mountains and the western escarpment of South Africa, but with rainfall decreases projected for the Cape south coast region. Rainfall seasonality is projected to have been significantly different from that of the present-day, with an all-year rainfall region plausibly extending as far north and east as the present-day Free State and Gauteng provinces of South Africa. Evaluations of the downscalings against key published proxy records for the LGM from southern Africa suggest good agreement and few deviations.

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KW - Palaeo-agulhas plain

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KW - Pleistocene

KW - Rainfall seasonality

KW - Regional climate modelling

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KW - Vegetation dynamics

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Downscaling Last Glacial Maximum climate over southern Africa

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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