Disease Risk in a Dynamic Environment

The Spread of Tick-Borne Pathogens in Minnesota, USA

Stacie J. Robinson, David F. Neitzel, Ron Moen, Meggan E Craft, Karin E Hamilton, Lucinda B Johnson, D J Mulla, Ulrike G Munderloh, Patrick T Redig, Kirk E. Smith, Clarence L. Turner, Jamie Umber, Katey Pelican

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

24 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

As humans and climate change alter the landscape, novel disease risk scenarios emerge. Understanding the complexities of pathogen emergence and subsequent spread as shaped by landscape heterogeneity is crucial to understanding disease emergence, pinpointing high-risk areas, and mitigating emerging disease threats in a dynamic environment. Tick-borne diseases present an important public health concern and incidence of many of these diseases are increasing in the United States. The complex epidemiology of tick-borne diseases includes strong ties with environmental factors that influence host availability, vector abundance, and pathogen transmission. Here, we used 16 years of case data from the Minnesota Department of Health to report spatial and temporal trends in Lyme disease (LD), human anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. We then used a spatial regression framework to evaluate the impact of landscape and climate factors on the spread of LD. Finally, we use the fitted model, and landscape and climate datasets projected under varying climate change scenarios, to predict future changes in tick-borne pathogen risk. Both forested habitat and temperature were important drivers of LD spread in Minnesota. Dramatic changes in future temperature regimes and forest communities predict rising risk of tick-borne disease.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)152-163
Number of pages12
JournalEcoHealth
Volume12
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 1 2015

Fingerprint

tick
Ticks
Tick-Borne Diseases
Lyme Disease
pathogen
Lyme disease
Climate Change
Climate
Anaplasmosis
Babesiosis
Temperature
Infectious Disease Transmission
Ecosystem
Epidemiology
Public Health
disease spread
climate change
climate
epidemiology
Incidence

Keywords

  • annaplasmosis
  • babesiosis
  • climate change
  • ixodes scapularis
  • landscape epidemiology
  • lyme disease
  • spatial model
  • tick-borne disease
  • tick-borne pathogens

Cite this

Disease Risk in a Dynamic Environment : The Spread of Tick-Borne Pathogens in Minnesota, USA. / Robinson, Stacie J.; Neitzel, David F.; Moen, Ron; Craft, Meggan E; Hamilton, Karin E; Johnson, Lucinda B; Mulla, D J; Munderloh, Ulrike G; Redig, Patrick T; Smith, Kirk E.; Turner, Clarence L.; Umber, Jamie; Pelican, Katey.

In: EcoHealth, Vol. 12, No. 1, 01.03.2015, p. 152-163.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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