Disease outbreak thresholds emerge from interactions between movement behavior, landscape structure, and epidemiology

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Disease models have provided conflicting evidence as to whether spatial heterogeneity promotes or impedes pathogen persistence. Moreover, there has been limited theoretical investigation into how animal movement behavior interacts with the spatial organization of resources (e.g., clustered, random, uniform) across a landscape to affect infectious disease dynamics. Importantly, spatial heterogeneity of resources can sometimes lead to nonlinear or counterintuitive outcomes depending on the host and pathogen system. There is a clear need to develop a general theoretical framework that could be used to create testable predictions for specific host–pathogen systems. Here, we develop an individual-based model integrated with movement ecology approaches to investigate how host movement behaviors interact with landscape heterogeneity (in the form of various levels of resource abundance and clustering) to affect pathogen dynamics. For most of the parameter space, our results support the counterintuitive idea that fragmentation promotes pathogen persistence, but this finding was largely dependent on perceptual range of the host, conspecific density, and recovery rate. For simulations with high conspecific density, slower recovery rates, and larger perceptual ranges, more complex disease dynamics emerged, and the most fragmented landscapes were not necessarily the most conducive to outbreaks or pathogen persistence. These results point to the importance of interactions between landscape structure, individual movement behavior, and pathogen transmission for predicting and understanding disease dynamics.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)7374-7379
Number of pages6
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume115
Issue number28
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 10 2018

Fingerprint

Disease Outbreaks
Epidemiology
Animal Behavior
Infectious Disease Transmission
Ecology
Communicable Diseases
Cluster Analysis

Keywords

  • Disease model
  • Landscape fragmentation
  • Perceptual range
  • Resource selection function
  • Spatial heterogeneity

PubMed: MeSH publication types

  • Journal Article
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

Cite this

@article{63a38a4e2bf4499f96634ec4d20e1203,
title = "Disease outbreak thresholds emerge from interactions between movement behavior, landscape structure, and epidemiology",
abstract = "Disease models have provided conflicting evidence as to whether spatial heterogeneity promotes or impedes pathogen persistence. Moreover, there has been limited theoretical investigation into how animal movement behavior interacts with the spatial organization of resources (e.g., clustered, random, uniform) across a landscape to affect infectious disease dynamics. Importantly, spatial heterogeneity of resources can sometimes lead to nonlinear or counterintuitive outcomes depending on the host and pathogen system. There is a clear need to develop a general theoretical framework that could be used to create testable predictions for specific host–pathogen systems. Here, we develop an individual-based model integrated with movement ecology approaches to investigate how host movement behaviors interact with landscape heterogeneity (in the form of various levels of resource abundance and clustering) to affect pathogen dynamics. For most of the parameter space, our results support the counterintuitive idea that fragmentation promotes pathogen persistence, but this finding was largely dependent on perceptual range of the host, conspecific density, and recovery rate. For simulations with high conspecific density, slower recovery rates, and larger perceptual ranges, more complex disease dynamics emerged, and the most fragmented landscapes were not necessarily the most conducive to outbreaks or pathogen persistence. These results point to the importance of interactions between landscape structure, individual movement behavior, and pathogen transmission for predicting and understanding disease dynamics.",
keywords = "Disease model, Landscape fragmentation, Perceptual range, Resource selection function, Spatial heterogeneity",
author = "White, {Lauren A.} and Forester, {James D} and Craft, {Meggan E}",
year = "2018",
month = "7",
day = "10",
doi = "10.1073/pnas.1801383115",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "115",
pages = "7374--7379",
journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",
issn = "0027-8424",
number = "28",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Disease outbreak thresholds emerge from interactions between movement behavior, landscape structure, and epidemiology

AU - White, Lauren A.

AU - Forester, James D

AU - Craft, Meggan E

PY - 2018/7/10

Y1 - 2018/7/10

N2 - Disease models have provided conflicting evidence as to whether spatial heterogeneity promotes or impedes pathogen persistence. Moreover, there has been limited theoretical investigation into how animal movement behavior interacts with the spatial organization of resources (e.g., clustered, random, uniform) across a landscape to affect infectious disease dynamics. Importantly, spatial heterogeneity of resources can sometimes lead to nonlinear or counterintuitive outcomes depending on the host and pathogen system. There is a clear need to develop a general theoretical framework that could be used to create testable predictions for specific host–pathogen systems. Here, we develop an individual-based model integrated with movement ecology approaches to investigate how host movement behaviors interact with landscape heterogeneity (in the form of various levels of resource abundance and clustering) to affect pathogen dynamics. For most of the parameter space, our results support the counterintuitive idea that fragmentation promotes pathogen persistence, but this finding was largely dependent on perceptual range of the host, conspecific density, and recovery rate. For simulations with high conspecific density, slower recovery rates, and larger perceptual ranges, more complex disease dynamics emerged, and the most fragmented landscapes were not necessarily the most conducive to outbreaks or pathogen persistence. These results point to the importance of interactions between landscape structure, individual movement behavior, and pathogen transmission for predicting and understanding disease dynamics.

AB - Disease models have provided conflicting evidence as to whether spatial heterogeneity promotes or impedes pathogen persistence. Moreover, there has been limited theoretical investigation into how animal movement behavior interacts with the spatial organization of resources (e.g., clustered, random, uniform) across a landscape to affect infectious disease dynamics. Importantly, spatial heterogeneity of resources can sometimes lead to nonlinear or counterintuitive outcomes depending on the host and pathogen system. There is a clear need to develop a general theoretical framework that could be used to create testable predictions for specific host–pathogen systems. Here, we develop an individual-based model integrated with movement ecology approaches to investigate how host movement behaviors interact with landscape heterogeneity (in the form of various levels of resource abundance and clustering) to affect pathogen dynamics. For most of the parameter space, our results support the counterintuitive idea that fragmentation promotes pathogen persistence, but this finding was largely dependent on perceptual range of the host, conspecific density, and recovery rate. For simulations with high conspecific density, slower recovery rates, and larger perceptual ranges, more complex disease dynamics emerged, and the most fragmented landscapes were not necessarily the most conducive to outbreaks or pathogen persistence. These results point to the importance of interactions between landscape structure, individual movement behavior, and pathogen transmission for predicting and understanding disease dynamics.

KW - Disease model

KW - Landscape fragmentation

KW - Perceptual range

KW - Resource selection function

KW - Spatial heterogeneity

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85049626324&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85049626324&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1801383115

DO - 10.1073/pnas.1801383115

M3 - Article

C2 - 29941567

AN - SCOPUS:85049626324

VL - 115

SP - 7374

EP - 7379

JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

SN - 0027-8424

IS - 28

ER -