Development and validation of risk prediction models for cardiovascular events in black adults: The Jackson heart study cohort

Ervin R. Fox, Tandaw E. Samdarshi, Solomon K. Musani, Michael J. Pencina, Jung Hye Sung, Alain G. Bertoni, Vanessa Xanthakis, Pelbreton C. Balfour, Satya S. Shreenivas, Carolyn Covington, Philip R. Liebson, Daniel F. Sarpong, Kenneth R. Butler, Thomas H. Mosley, Wayne D. Rosamond, Aaron R. Folsom, David M. Herrington, Ramachandran S. Vasan, Herman A. Taylor

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

40 Scopus citations


IMPORTANCE: Cardiovascular risk assessment is a fundamental component of prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, commonly used prediction models have been formulated in primarily or exclusively white populations. Whether risk assessment in black adults is dissimilar to that in white adults is uncertain. OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate risk prediction models for CVD incidence in black adults, incorporating standard risk factors, biomarkers, and subclinical disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The Jackson Heart Study (JHS), a longitudinal community-based study of 5301 black adults in Jackson, Mississippi. Inclusive study dates were the date of a participant's first visit (September 2000 to March 2004) to December 31, 2011. The median (75th percentile) follow-up was 9.1 (9.7) years. The dates of the analysis were August 2013 to May 2015. Measurements included standard risk factors, including age, sex, body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, ratio of fasting total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, estimated glomerular filtration rate, antihypertensive therapy, diabetes mellitus, and smoking; blood biomarkers; and subclinical disease measures, includingankle-brachial index, carotid intimal-medial thickness, and echocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy and systolic dysfunction. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incident CVD event was defined as the first occurrence of myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, congestive heart failure, stroke, incident angina, or intermittent claudication. Model performance was compared with the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) CVD risk algorithm and the Framingham Risk Score (FHS) refitted to the JHS data and evaluated in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohorts. RESULTS: The study cohort comprised 3689 participants with mean (SD) age at baseline was 53 (11) years, and 64.8% (n = 2390) were female. Over a median of 9.1 years, 270 participants (166 women) experienced a first CVD event. A simple combination of standard CVD risk factors, B-type natriuretic peptide, and ankle-brachial index (model 6) yielded modest improvement over a model without B-type natriuretic peptide and ankle-brachial index (C statistic, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.75-0.83 [relative integrated discrimination improvement, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.15-0.30]). However, the reclassification improvement was not substantially different between model 6 and the ACC/AHA CVD Pooled Cohort risk equations or between model 6 and the FHS. The models discriminated reasonably well inthe ARIC and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis data (C statistic range, 0.70-0.77). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Our findings using the JHS data in the present study are valuable because they confirm that current FHS and ACC/AHA risk algorithms work well in black individuals and are not easily improved on. A unique risk calculator for black adults may not be necessary.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)15-25
Number of pages11
JournalJAMA cardiology
Issue number1
StatePublished - Apr 2016

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The Jackson Heart Study is supported by contracts HSN268201300046C, HHSN268201300047C, HHSN268201300048C, HHSN268201300049C, and HHSN268201300050C from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities. This work was also supported by award 13CRP14090010 from the American Heart Association's Clinical Research Program (Dr Xanthakis) and by grants N01-HC-25915, R01-HL-08675, and R01-HL-080124 from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study (Dr Vasan). The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) is supported by contracts N01-HC-95159, N01-HC-95160, N01-HC-95161, N01-HC-95162, N01-HC-95163, N01-HC-95164, N01-HC-95165, N01-HC-95166, N01-HC-95167, N01-HC-95168, and N01-HC-95169 from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and by grants UL1-TR-000040 and UL1-TR-001079 from the National Center for Research Resources, National Institutes of Health. The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study is carried out as a collaborative study supported by contracts HHSN268201100005C, HHSN268201100006C, HHSN268201100007C, HHSN268201100008C, HHSN268201100009C, HHSN268201100010C, HHSN268201100011C, and HHSN268201100012C from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

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Copyright 2016 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.


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