PURPOSE Women treated with chest radiation for childhood cancer have one of the highest risks of breast cancer. Models producing personalized breast cancer risk estimates applicable to this population do not exist. We sought to develop and validate a breast cancer risk prediction model for childhood cancer survivors treated with chest radiation incorporating treatment-related factors, family history, and reproductive factors. METHODS Analyses were based on multinational cohorts of female 5-year survivors of cancer diagnosed younger than age 21 years and treated with chest radiation. Model derivation was based on 1,120 participants in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study diagnosed between 1970 and 1986, with median attained age 42 years (range 20-64) and 242 with breast cancer. Model validation included 1,027 participants from three cohorts, with median age 32 years (range 20-66) and 105 with breast cancer. RESULTS The model included current age, chest radiation field, whether chest radiation was delivered within 1 year of menarche, anthracycline exposure, age at menopause, and history of a first-degree relative with breast cancer. Ten-year risk estimates ranged from 2% to 23% for 30-year-old women (area under the curve, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.50 to 0.73) and from 5% to 34% for 40-year-old women (area under the curve, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.84). The highest risks were among premenopausal women older than age 40 years treated with mantle field radiation within a year of menarche who had a first-degree relative with breast cancer. It showed good calibration with an expected-to-observed ratio of the number of breast cancers of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.74 to 1.16). CONCLUSION Breast cancer risk varies among childhood cancer survivors treated with chest radiation. Accurate risk prediction may aid in refining surveillance, counseling, and preventive strategies in this population.
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