Detecting longitudinal patterns of daily smoking following drastic cigarette reduction

To enhance prolonged smoking cessation or reduction, a better understanding of the process of change is needed. This study examines daily smoking rates following the end of an intensive smoking reduction program originally designed to evaluate the relationship of tobacco biomarkers with reduced levels of smoking. A novel pattern-oriented approach called time series-based typology is used to detect homogeneous smoking patterns in time-intensively (i.e., 40 occasions) observed smokers (n = 57), who were predominantly Caucasian (94.7%), male (52.6%), and on average 47.9 years old (SD = 11.3). The majority of the smokers exhibited a change in their daily smoking behavior over the course of 40 days with 47.4% increasing and 40.4% decreasing the number of cigarettes smoked per day, which is contrary to the results a group level approach would have found. Very few smokers (12.3%) maintained their average smoking rate, and exhibited an externally controlled smoking pattern. Trajectory type could be predicted by temporally proximal motivation and self-efficacy variables ((F(4, 106) =3.46, p = .011, η² = .115), underscoring their importance in maintaining reduced smoking rates. Time series-based typology demonstrated good sensitivity to the identification of meaningfully different trajectories.