Demographic response of a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation to changes in sea ice and subsistence harvest

Kristin L. Laidre; Todd W. Arnold; Eric V. Regehr; Stephen N. Atkinson; Erik W. Born; Øystein Wiig; Nicholas J. Lunn; Markus Dyck; Harry L. Stern; Seth Stapleton; Benjamin Cohen; David Paetkau

doi:10.3354/ESR01239

Demographic response of a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation to changes in sea ice and subsistence harvest

Kristin L. Laidre, Todd W. Arnold, Eric V. Regehr, Stephen N. Atkinson, Erik W. Born, Øystein Wiig, Nicholas J. Lunn, Markus Dyck, Harry L. Stern, Seth Stapleton, Benjamin Cohen, David Paetkau

Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

Climate change is a long-term threat to polar bears. However, sea-ice loss is hypothe-sized to provide transient benefits in high latitudes, where thick multiyear ice historically limited biological productivity and seal abundance. We used joint live-recapture and dead-recovery mark-recapture models to analyze data for one of the most northerly polar bear subpopulations, Kane Basin. The data consisted of 277 initial live captures and genetic identifications (1992-1997 = 150, 2012-2014 = 127), 89 recaptures or re-identifications (1992-1997 = 53, 2012-2014 = 36), and 24 harvest returns of research-marked bears during 1992-2014. We estimated mean annual abun-dance of 357 bears (95% CI: 221-493) for 2013-2014. This suggests a likely increase relative to our estimate of 224 (95% CI: 145-303) bears in the mid-1990s and relative to a previously published estimate of 164 (95% CI: 94-234) bears in the mid-1990s that used some of the same data. This is also supported by an apparent increase in the density of bears in eastern Kane Basin during 2012-2014. Estimates of total survival for females >3 yr old (mean ± SE: 0.95 ± 0.04) and their dependent offspring were similar to previous estimates from the 1990s, and estimates of unharvested survival for females >3 yr (0.96 ± 0.04) appear sufficient for positive population growth. Estimates of total survival were lower for males >3 yr (0.87 ± 0.06). We documented a reduction in mortality associ-ated with subsistence harvest, likely attributable to implementation of a harvest quota by Green-land in 2006. Our findings, together with evidence for increased range sizes, improved body condi-tion for all sex and age classes, and stable reproductive metrics, show that this small high-Arctic polar bear subpopulation remains productive and healthy. These benefits are likely temporary given predictions for continued climate change.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	73-87
Number of pages	15
Journal	Endangered Species Research
Volume	51
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3354/ESR01239
State	Published - 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
port was provided by (in alphabetical order) Applied Physics Laboratory (University of Washington); Association of Greenland Hunters and Fishermen (KNAPK); Avannaa Resources (Copenhagen); Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum (Nuuk); Danish Civil Aviation Authorities; Environment and Climate Change Canada; Environmental Protection Agency (Ministry of Environment and Food of Denmark) DANCEA Programme; Government of Nunavut; Greenland Department of Environment; Greenland Department of Fisheries, Hunting and Agriculture; Greenland Institute of Natural Re - sources (GINR); Iviq Hunters and Trappers Organization; NASA Climate and Biological Response grant NNX11A063G (principal investigator: K.L.L.); Nuna Minerals; Nunavut General Monitoring Program; Nunavut Wildlife Management Board; Polar Continental Shelf Project; Royal Canadian Mounted Police; Universal Helicopters; University of Oslo; Vetlesen Foundation; and World Wildlife Fund. We thank M. Akeeagok, P. Hegelund, J. Kigutak, J. Neely, and V. Sahana-tien for their participation in the field work, and pilots J. Barry, J. Innes, and S. Lodge for their safe and excellent flying. This study was presented in SWG (2016) for the Canada-Greenland Joint Commission on BB and KB polar bears. Three anonymous reviewers improved the paper.

Funding Information:
Financial, logistical, and in-kind sup-port was provided by (in alphabetical order) Applied Physics Laboratory (University of Washington); Association of Green-land Hunters and Fishermen (KNAPK); Avannaa Resources (Copenhagen); Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum (Nuuk); Danish Civil Aviation Authorities; Environment and Climate Change Canada; Environmental Protection Agency (Min-istry of Environment and Food of Denmark) DANCEA Pro-gramme; Government of Nunavut; Greenland Department of Environment; Greenland Department of Fisheries, Hunt-ing and Agriculture; Greenland Institute of Natural Re-sources (GINR); Iviq Hunters and Trappers Organization; NASA Climate and Biological Response grant NNX11A063G (principal investigator: K.L.L.); Nuna Minerals; Nunavut General Monitoring Program; Nunavut Wildlife Manage-ment Board; Polar Continental Shelf Project; Royal Canadian Mounted Police; Universal Helicopters; University of Oslo; Vetlesen Foundation; and World Wildlife Fund. We thank M. Akeeagok, P. Hegelund, J. Kigutak, J. Neely, and V. Sahana-tien for their participation in the field work, and pilots J. Barry, J. Innes, and S. Lodge for their safe and excellent flying. This study was presented in SWG (2016) for the Can-ada-Greenland Joint Commission on BB and KB polar bears. Three anonymous reviewers improved the paper.

Publisher Copyright:
© The authors 2023. Open Access under Creative Commons by Attribution Licence. Use, distribution and reproduction are un- restricted. Authors and original publication must be credited. All Rights Reserved.

Keywords

Abundance
Genetic mark-recapture-recovery
Kane Basin
Polar bear
Sea ice
Ursus maritimus

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10.3354/ESR01239

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Laidre, K. L., Arnold, T. W., Regehr, E. V., Atkinson, S. N., Born, E. W., Wiig, Ø., Lunn, N. J., Dyck, M., Stern, H. L., Stapleton, S., Cohen, B., & Paetkau, D. (2023). Demographic response of a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation to changes in sea ice and subsistence harvest. Endangered Species Research, 51, 73-87. https://doi.org/10.3354/ESR01239

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title = "Demographic response of a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation to changes in sea ice and subsistence harvest",

abstract = "Climate change is a long-term threat to polar bears. However, sea-ice loss is hypothe-sized to provide transient benefits in high latitudes, where thick multiyear ice historically limited biological productivity and seal abundance. We used joint live-recapture and dead-recovery mark-recapture models to analyze data for one of the most northerly polar bear subpopulations, Kane Basin. The data consisted of 277 initial live captures and genetic identifications (1992-1997 = 150, 2012-2014 = 127), 89 recaptures or re-identifications (1992-1997 = 53, 2012-2014 = 36), and 24 harvest returns of research-marked bears during 1992-2014. We estimated mean annual abun-dance of 357 bears (95% CI: 221-493) for 2013-2014. This suggests a likely increase relative to our estimate of 224 (95% CI: 145-303) bears in the mid-1990s and relative to a previously published estimate of 164 (95% CI: 94-234) bears in the mid-1990s that used some of the same data. This is also supported by an apparent increase in the density of bears in eastern Kane Basin during 2012-2014. Estimates of total survival for females >3 yr old (mean ± SE: 0.95 ± 0.04) and their dependent offspring were similar to previous estimates from the 1990s, and estimates of unharvested survival for females >3 yr (0.96 ± 0.04) appear sufficient for positive population growth. Estimates of total survival were lower for males >3 yr (0.87 ± 0.06). We documented a reduction in mortality associ-ated with subsistence harvest, likely attributable to implementation of a harvest quota by Green-land in 2006. Our findings, together with evidence for increased range sizes, improved body condi-tion for all sex and age classes, and stable reproductive metrics, show that this small high-Arctic polar bear subpopulation remains productive and healthy. These benefits are likely temporary given predictions for continued climate change.",

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author = "Laidre, {Kristin L.} and Arnold, {Todd W.} and Regehr, {Eric V.} and Atkinson, {Stephen N.} and Born, {Erik W.} and {\O}ystein Wiig and Lunn, {Nicholas J.} and Markus Dyck and Stern, {Harry L.} and Seth Stapleton and Benjamin Cohen and David Paetkau",

note = "Funding Information: port was provided by (in alphabetical order) Applied Physics Laboratory (University of Washington); Association of Greenland Hunters and Fishermen (KNAPK); Avannaa Resources (Copenhagen); Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum (Nuuk); Danish Civil Aviation Authorities; Environment and Climate Change Canada; Environmental Protection Agency (Ministry of Environment and Food of Denmark) DANCEA Programme; Government of Nunavut; Greenland Department of Environment; Greenland Department of Fisheries, Hunting and Agriculture; Greenland Institute of Natural Re - sources (GINR); Iviq Hunters and Trappers Organization; NASA Climate and Biological Response grant NNX11A063G (principal investigator: K.L.L.); Nuna Minerals; Nunavut General Monitoring Program; Nunavut Wildlife Management Board; Polar Continental Shelf Project; Royal Canadian Mounted Police; Universal Helicopters; University of Oslo; Vetlesen Foundation; and World Wildlife Fund. We thank M. Akeeagok, P. Hegelund, J. Kigutak, J. Neely, and V. Sahana-tien for their participation in the field work, and pilots J. Barry, J. Innes, and S. Lodge for their safe and excellent flying. This study was presented in SWG (2016) for the Canada-Greenland Joint Commission on BB and KB polar bears. Three anonymous reviewers improved the paper. Funding Information: Financial, logistical, and in-kind sup-port was provided by (in alphabetical order) Applied Physics Laboratory (University of Washington); Association of Green-land Hunters and Fishermen (KNAPK); Avannaa Resources (Copenhagen); Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum (Nuuk); Danish Civil Aviation Authorities; Environment and Climate Change Canada; Environmental Protection Agency (Min-istry of Environment and Food of Denmark) DANCEA Pro-gramme; Government of Nunavut; Greenland Department of Environment; Greenland Department of Fisheries, Hunt-ing and Agriculture; Greenland Institute of Natural Re-sources (GINR); Iviq Hunters and Trappers Organization; NASA Climate and Biological Response grant NNX11A063G (principal investigator: K.L.L.); Nuna Minerals; Nunavut General Monitoring Program; Nunavut Wildlife Manage-ment Board; Polar Continental Shelf Project; Royal Canadian Mounted Police; Universal Helicopters; University of Oslo; Vetlesen Foundation; and World Wildlife Fund. We thank M. Akeeagok, P. Hegelund, J. Kigutak, J. Neely, and V. Sahana-tien for their participation in the field work, and pilots J. Barry, J. Innes, and S. Lodge for their safe and excellent flying. This study was presented in SWG (2016) for the Can-ada-Greenland Joint Commission on BB and KB polar bears. Three anonymous reviewers improved the paper. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The authors 2023. Open Access under Creative Commons by Attribution Licence. Use, distribution and reproduction are un- restricted. Authors and original publication must be credited. All Rights Reserved.",

year = "2023",

doi = "10.3354/ESR01239",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "51",

pages = "73--87",

journal = "Endangered Species Research",

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T1 - Demographic response of a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation to changes in sea ice and subsistence harvest

AU - Laidre, Kristin L.

AU - Arnold, Todd W.

AU - Regehr, Eric V.

AU - Atkinson, Stephen N.

AU - Born, Erik W.

AU - Wiig, Øystein

AU - Lunn, Nicholas J.

AU - Dyck, Markus

AU - Stern, Harry L.

AU - Stapleton, Seth

AU - Cohen, Benjamin

AU - Paetkau, David

N1 - Funding Information: port was provided by (in alphabetical order) Applied Physics Laboratory (University of Washington); Association of Greenland Hunters and Fishermen (KNAPK); Avannaa Resources (Copenhagen); Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum (Nuuk); Danish Civil Aviation Authorities; Environment and Climate Change Canada; Environmental Protection Agency (Ministry of Environment and Food of Denmark) DANCEA Programme; Government of Nunavut; Greenland Department of Environment; Greenland Department of Fisheries, Hunting and Agriculture; Greenland Institute of Natural Re - sources (GINR); Iviq Hunters and Trappers Organization; NASA Climate and Biological Response grant NNX11A063G (principal investigator: K.L.L.); Nuna Minerals; Nunavut General Monitoring Program; Nunavut Wildlife Management Board; Polar Continental Shelf Project; Royal Canadian Mounted Police; Universal Helicopters; University of Oslo; Vetlesen Foundation; and World Wildlife Fund. We thank M. Akeeagok, P. Hegelund, J. Kigutak, J. Neely, and V. Sahana-tien for their participation in the field work, and pilots J. Barry, J. Innes, and S. Lodge for their safe and excellent flying. This study was presented in SWG (2016) for the Canada-Greenland Joint Commission on BB and KB polar bears. Three anonymous reviewers improved the paper. Funding Information: Financial, logistical, and in-kind sup-port was provided by (in alphabetical order) Applied Physics Laboratory (University of Washington); Association of Green-land Hunters and Fishermen (KNAPK); Avannaa Resources (Copenhagen); Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum (Nuuk); Danish Civil Aviation Authorities; Environment and Climate Change Canada; Environmental Protection Agency (Min-istry of Environment and Food of Denmark) DANCEA Pro-gramme; Government of Nunavut; Greenland Department of Environment; Greenland Department of Fisheries, Hunt-ing and Agriculture; Greenland Institute of Natural Re-sources (GINR); Iviq Hunters and Trappers Organization; NASA Climate and Biological Response grant NNX11A063G (principal investigator: K.L.L.); Nuna Minerals; Nunavut General Monitoring Program; Nunavut Wildlife Manage-ment Board; Polar Continental Shelf Project; Royal Canadian Mounted Police; Universal Helicopters; University of Oslo; Vetlesen Foundation; and World Wildlife Fund. We thank M. Akeeagok, P. Hegelund, J. Kigutak, J. Neely, and V. Sahana-tien for their participation in the field work, and pilots J. Barry, J. Innes, and S. Lodge for their safe and excellent flying. This study was presented in SWG (2016) for the Can-ada-Greenland Joint Commission on BB and KB polar bears. Three anonymous reviewers improved the paper. Publisher Copyright: © The authors 2023. Open Access under Creative Commons by Attribution Licence. Use, distribution and reproduction are un- restricted. Authors and original publication must be credited. All Rights Reserved.

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - Climate change is a long-term threat to polar bears. However, sea-ice loss is hypothe-sized to provide transient benefits in high latitudes, where thick multiyear ice historically limited biological productivity and seal abundance. We used joint live-recapture and dead-recovery mark-recapture models to analyze data for one of the most northerly polar bear subpopulations, Kane Basin. The data consisted of 277 initial live captures and genetic identifications (1992-1997 = 150, 2012-2014 = 127), 89 recaptures or re-identifications (1992-1997 = 53, 2012-2014 = 36), and 24 harvest returns of research-marked bears during 1992-2014. We estimated mean annual abun-dance of 357 bears (95% CI: 221-493) for 2013-2014. This suggests a likely increase relative to our estimate of 224 (95% CI: 145-303) bears in the mid-1990s and relative to a previously published estimate of 164 (95% CI: 94-234) bears in the mid-1990s that used some of the same data. This is also supported by an apparent increase in the density of bears in eastern Kane Basin during 2012-2014. Estimates of total survival for females >3 yr old (mean ± SE: 0.95 ± 0.04) and their dependent offspring were similar to previous estimates from the 1990s, and estimates of unharvested survival for females >3 yr (0.96 ± 0.04) appear sufficient for positive population growth. Estimates of total survival were lower for males >3 yr (0.87 ± 0.06). We documented a reduction in mortality associ-ated with subsistence harvest, likely attributable to implementation of a harvest quota by Green-land in 2006. Our findings, together with evidence for increased range sizes, improved body condi-tion for all sex and age classes, and stable reproductive metrics, show that this small high-Arctic polar bear subpopulation remains productive and healthy. These benefits are likely temporary given predictions for continued climate change.

AB - Climate change is a long-term threat to polar bears. However, sea-ice loss is hypothe-sized to provide transient benefits in high latitudes, where thick multiyear ice historically limited biological productivity and seal abundance. We used joint live-recapture and dead-recovery mark-recapture models to analyze data for one of the most northerly polar bear subpopulations, Kane Basin. The data consisted of 277 initial live captures and genetic identifications (1992-1997 = 150, 2012-2014 = 127), 89 recaptures or re-identifications (1992-1997 = 53, 2012-2014 = 36), and 24 harvest returns of research-marked bears during 1992-2014. We estimated mean annual abun-dance of 357 bears (95% CI: 221-493) for 2013-2014. This suggests a likely increase relative to our estimate of 224 (95% CI: 145-303) bears in the mid-1990s and relative to a previously published estimate of 164 (95% CI: 94-234) bears in the mid-1990s that used some of the same data. This is also supported by an apparent increase in the density of bears in eastern Kane Basin during 2012-2014. Estimates of total survival for females >3 yr old (mean ± SE: 0.95 ± 0.04) and their dependent offspring were similar to previous estimates from the 1990s, and estimates of unharvested survival for females >3 yr (0.96 ± 0.04) appear sufficient for positive population growth. Estimates of total survival were lower for males >3 yr (0.87 ± 0.06). We documented a reduction in mortality associ-ated with subsistence harvest, likely attributable to implementation of a harvest quota by Green-land in 2006. Our findings, together with evidence for increased range sizes, improved body condi-tion for all sex and age classes, and stable reproductive metrics, show that this small high-Arctic polar bear subpopulation remains productive and healthy. These benefits are likely temporary given predictions for continued climate change.

KW - Abundance

KW - Genetic mark-recapture-recovery

KW - Kane Basin

KW - Polar bear

KW - Sea ice

KW - Ursus maritimus

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ER -

Demographic response of a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation to changes in sea ice and subsistence harvest

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Bibliographical note

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