Demand diversion for vehicle guidance, simulation, and control in freeway corridors

Models for describing diversion at the trip origin and diversion at freeway entrance ramps are discussed. Data collected in a major metropolitan area have shown that diversion at the origin is a function of trip time, route length, and the number of intersections along the trip. However, trip time is the dominant determining factor and can be employed to estimate the decision in the absence of additional information. Diversion at freeway entrance ramps depends on the perceived trip time on the freeway and arterial and the perceived waiting time at the ramp queue. The data confirm that socioeconomic indicators do not play a role in the diversion decision. The purpose of developing these models is for dynamic simulation, on-line freeway corridor control, and demand forecasting suitable for guidance and navigation.