Decision-making under great uncertainty

Environmental management in an era of global change

Stephen Polasky, Stephen R. Carpenter, Carl Folke, Bonnie L Keeler

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

266 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Global change issues are complex and the consequences of decisions are often highly uncertain. The large spatial and temporal scales and stakes involved make it important to take account of present and potential consequences in decision-making. Standard approaches to decision-making under uncertainty require information about the likelihood of alternative states, how states and actions combine to form outcomes and the net benefits of different outcomes. For global change issues, however, the set of potential states is often unknown, much less the probabilities, effect of actions or their net benefits. Decision theory, thresholds, scenarios and resilience thinking can expand awareness of the potential states and outcomes, as well as of the probabilities and consequences of outcomes under alternative decisions.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)398-404
Number of pages7
JournalTrends in Ecology and Evolution
Volume26
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 1 2011

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environmental management
global change
decision making
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Decision-making under great uncertainty : Environmental management in an era of global change. / Polasky, Stephen; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Folke, Carl; Keeler, Bonnie L.

In: Trends in Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 26, No. 8, 01.08.2011, p. 398-404.

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

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