Continuous Prediction of Cognitive State Using A Marked-Point Process Modeling Framework^∗

Behavioral outcomes in many cognitive tasks are often recorded in a trial structure at discrete times. To adapt to this structure, neural encoder and decoder models have been built to take into account the trial organization to characterize the connection between brain dynamics and behavior, e.g. through latent dynamical models. The challenge of these models is that they are limited to discrete trial times while neural data is continuous. Here, we propose a marked-point process framework to characterize multivariate behavioral outcomes recorded during a trial-structured cognitive task, to build an estimation of cognitive state at a fine time resolution. We propose a state-space marked-point process modeling framework to characterize the relationship between observed behavior and underlying dynamical cognitive processes. We define the framework for a class of behavioral readouts by a response time and a discrete mark signifying an observed binary decision, and develop the state estimation and system identification steps. We define the filter and smoother for the marked-point process observation and develop an EM algorithm to estimate the model's free parameters. We demonstrate this modeling approach in a behavioral readout captured while participants perform an emotional conflict resolution task (ECR) and show that we can estimate underlying cognitive processes at a fine temporal resolution beyond the trial by trial approach.