Constraints on the Optical Depth to Reionization from Balloon-borne Cosmic Microwave Background Measurements

We assess the uncertainty with which a balloon-borne experiment, nominally called Tau Surveyor (τS), can measure the optical depth to reionization σ(τ) with given realistic constraints of instrument noise and foreground emissions. Using a τS fiducial design with six frequency bands between 150 and 380 GHz, with white and uniform map noise of 7 μK arcmin, achievable with a single midlatitude flight, and including Planck's 30 and 44 GHz data, we assess the error σ(τ) obtained with three foreground models and as a function of sky fraction f _sky between 40% and 54%. We carry out the analysis using both parametric and blind foreground separation techniques. We compare the σ(τ) values to those obtained with low-frequency and high-frequency versions of the experiment called τS-lf and τS-hf, which have only four and up to eight frequency bands with narrower and wider frequency coverage, respectively. We find that with τS, the lowest constraint is σ(τ) = 0.0034, obtained for one of the foreground models with f _sky = 54%. σ(τ) is larger, in some cases by more than a factor of 2, for smaller sky fractions, with τS-lf, or as a function of foreground model. The τS-hf configuration does not lead to significantly tighter constraints. The exclusion of the 30 and 44 GHz data, which give information about synchrotron emission, leads to significant τ misestimates. Decreasing noise by an ambitious factor of 10, while keeping f _sky = 40%, gives σ(τ) = 0.0031. The combination of σ(τ) = 0.0034, baryon acoustic oscillation data from DESI, and future cosmic microwave background B-mode lensing data from the CMB-S3/CMB-S4 experiments could give σ(∑m _ν ) = 17 meV.