Constraints on the adjustment of tidal marshes to accelerating sea level rise

Neil Saintilan; Katya E. Kovalenko; Glenn Guntenspergen; Kerrylee Rogers; James C. Lynch; Donald R. Cahoon; Catherine E. Lovelock; Daniel A. Friess; Erica Ashe; Ken W. Krauss; Nicole Cormier; Tom Spencer; Janine Adams; Jacqueline Raw; Carles Ibanez; Francesco Scarton; Stijn Temmerman; Patrick Meire; Tom Maris; Karen Thorne; John Brazner; Gail L. Chmura; Tony Bowron; Vishmie P. Gamage; Kimberly Cressman; Charlie Endris; Christina Marconi; Pamela Marcum; Kari St. Laurent; William Reay; Kenneth B. Raposa; Jason A. Garwood; Nicole Khan

doi:10.1126/science.abo7872

Constraints on the adjustment of tidal marshes to accelerating sea level rise

Neil Saintilan, Katya E. Kovalenko, Glenn Guntenspergen, Kerrylee Rogers, James C. Lynch, Donald R. Cahoon, Catherine E. Lovelock, Daniel A. Friess, Erica Ashe, Ken W. Krauss, Nicole Cormier, Tom Spencer, Janine Adams, Jacqueline Raw, Carles Ibanez, Francesco Scarton, Stijn Temmerman, Patrick Meire, Tom Maris, Karen ThorneJohn Brazner, Gail L. Chmura, Tony Bowron, Vishmie P. Gamage, Kimberly Cressman, Charlie Endris, Christina Marconi, Pamela Marcum, Kari St. Laurent, William Reay, Kenneth B. Raposa, Jason A. Garwood, Nicole Khan

Natural Resources Research Institute

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

77 Scopus citations

Abstract

Much uncertainty exists about the vulnerability of valuable tidal marsh ecosystems to relative sea level rise. Previous assessments of resilience to sea level rise, to which marshes can adjust by sediment accretion and elevation gain, revealed contrasting results, depending on contemporary or Holocene geological data. By analyzing globally distributed contemporary data, we found that marsh sediment accretion increases in parity with sea level rise, seemingly confirming previously claimed marsh resilience. However, subsidence of the substrate shows a nonlinear increase with accretion. As a result, marsh elevation gain is constrained in relation to sea level rise, and deficits emerge that are consistent with Holocene observations of tidal marsh vulnerability.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	523-527
Number of pages	5
Journal	Science
Volume	377
Issue number	6605
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abo7872
State	Published - Jul 9 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
NRF/SAEON Elwandle Node; the NRF/DSI Shallow Marine and Coastal Research Infrastructure (SMCRI); the SAEON Elwandle Coastal Biogeochemical Platform: UKRI NERC CBESS (NE/J015423/1); Australian Research Council FS100100024, FT130100532, and the Coasts and Clean Seas Initiative; National Environmental Science Program 2 Coastal and Marine Hub; the DSI/NRF Research Chair in Shallow Water Ecosystems (UID 84375); US Geological Survey Climate Research and Development Program and Ecosystems Mission Area; Research Foundation of Flanders, Belgium (FWO grants G.0600.18N and G.0316.20N); NSF grants OCE-1702587 and OCE-2002437; Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) of Louisiana, 2021, Coastwide Reference Monitoring System-Wetlands Monitoring Data; US Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center; Ministero delle Infrastrutture e dei Trasporti – Provveditorato Interregionale alle OO. PP. del Veneto – Trentino Alto Adige – Friuli Venezia Giulia, through its concessionary Consorzio Venezia Nuova; Catalan Water Agency, Ebro Delta Monitoring Network Program.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.

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Journal Article

UN SDGs

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10.1126/science.abo7872

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Saintilan, N., Kovalenko, K. E., Guntenspergen, G., Rogers, K., Lynch, J. C., Cahoon, D. R., Lovelock, C. E., Friess, D. A., Ashe, E., Krauss, K. W., Cormier, N., Spencer, T., Adams, J., Raw, J., Ibanez, C., Scarton, F., Temmerman, S., Meire, P., Maris, T., ... Khan, N. (2022). Constraints on the adjustment of tidal marshes to accelerating sea level rise. Science, 377(6605), 523-527. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abo7872

Saintilan, N, Kovalenko, KE , Guntenspergen, G, Rogers, K, Lynch, JC, Cahoon, DR, Lovelock, CE, Friess, DA, Ashe, E, Krauss, KW, Cormier, N, Spencer, T, Adams, J, Raw, J, Ibanez, C, Scarton, F, Temmerman, S, Meire, P, Maris, T, Thorne, K, Brazner, J, Chmura, GL, Bowron, T, Gamage, VP, Cressman, K, Endris, C, Marconi, C, Marcum, P, St. Laurent, K, Reay, W, Raposa, KB, Garwood, JA & Khan, N 2022, 'Constraints on the adjustment of tidal marshes to accelerating sea level rise', Science, vol. 377, no. 6605, pp. 523-527. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abo7872

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title = "Constraints on the adjustment of tidal marshes to accelerating sea level rise",

abstract = "Much uncertainty exists about the vulnerability of valuable tidal marsh ecosystems to relative sea level rise. Previous assessments of resilience to sea level rise, to which marshes can adjust by sediment accretion and elevation gain, revealed contrasting results, depending on contemporary or Holocene geological data. By analyzing globally distributed contemporary data, we found that marsh sediment accretion increases in parity with sea level rise, seemingly confirming previously claimed marsh resilience. However, subsidence of the substrate shows a nonlinear increase with accretion. As a result, marsh elevation gain is constrained in relation to sea level rise, and deficits emerge that are consistent with Holocene observations of tidal marsh vulnerability.",

author = "Neil Saintilan and Kovalenko, {Katya E.} and Glenn Guntenspergen and Kerrylee Rogers and Lynch, {James C.} and Cahoon, {Donald R.} and Lovelock, {Catherine E.} and Friess, {Daniel A.} and Erica Ashe and Krauss, {Ken W.} and Nicole Cormier and Tom Spencer and Janine Adams and Jacqueline Raw and Carles Ibanez and Francesco Scarton and Stijn Temmerman and Patrick Meire and Tom Maris and Karen Thorne and John Brazner and Chmura, {Gail L.} and Tony Bowron and Gamage, {Vishmie P.} and Kimberly Cressman and Charlie Endris and Christina Marconi and Pamela Marcum and {St. Laurent}, Kari and William Reay and Raposa, {Kenneth B.} and Garwood, {Jason A.} and Nicole Khan",

note = "Funding Information: NRF/SAEON Elwandle Node; the NRF/DSI Shallow Marine and Coastal Research Infrastructure (SMCRI); the SAEON Elwandle Coastal Biogeochemical Platform: UKRI NERC CBESS (NE/J015423/1); Australian Research Council FS100100024, FT130100532, and the Coasts and Clean Seas Initiative; National Environmental Science Program 2 Coastal and Marine Hub; the DSI/NRF Research Chair in Shallow Water Ecosystems (UID 84375); US Geological Survey Climate Research and Development Program and Ecosystems Mission Area; Research Foundation of Flanders, Belgium (FWO grants G.0600.18N and G.0316.20N); NSF grants OCE-1702587 and OCE-2002437; Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) of Louisiana, 2021, Coastwide Reference Monitoring System-Wetlands Monitoring Data; US Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center; Ministero delle Infrastrutture e dei Trasporti – Provveditorato Interregionale alle OO. PP. del Veneto – Trentino Alto Adige – Friuli Venezia Giulia, through its concessionary Consorzio Venezia Nuova; Catalan Water Agency, Ebro Delta Monitoring Network Program. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.",

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T1 - Constraints on the adjustment of tidal marshes to accelerating sea level rise

AU - Saintilan, Neil

AU - Kovalenko, Katya E.

AU - Guntenspergen, Glenn

AU - Rogers, Kerrylee

AU - Lynch, James C.

AU - Cahoon, Donald R.

AU - Lovelock, Catherine E.

AU - Friess, Daniel A.

AU - Ashe, Erica

AU - Krauss, Ken W.

AU - Cormier, Nicole

AU - Spencer, Tom

AU - Adams, Janine

AU - Raw, Jacqueline

AU - Ibanez, Carles

AU - Scarton, Francesco

AU - Temmerman, Stijn

AU - Meire, Patrick

AU - Maris, Tom

AU - Thorne, Karen

AU - Brazner, John

AU - Chmura, Gail L.

AU - Bowron, Tony

AU - Gamage, Vishmie P.

AU - Cressman, Kimberly

AU - Endris, Charlie

AU - Marconi, Christina

AU - Marcum, Pamela

AU - St. Laurent, Kari

AU - Reay, William

AU - Raposa, Kenneth B.

AU - Garwood, Jason A.

AU - Khan, Nicole

N1 - Funding Information: NRF/SAEON Elwandle Node; the NRF/DSI Shallow Marine and Coastal Research Infrastructure (SMCRI); the SAEON Elwandle Coastal Biogeochemical Platform: UKRI NERC CBESS (NE/J015423/1); Australian Research Council FS100100024, FT130100532, and the Coasts and Clean Seas Initiative; National Environmental Science Program 2 Coastal and Marine Hub; the DSI/NRF Research Chair in Shallow Water Ecosystems (UID 84375); US Geological Survey Climate Research and Development Program and Ecosystems Mission Area; Research Foundation of Flanders, Belgium (FWO grants G.0600.18N and G.0316.20N); NSF grants OCE-1702587 and OCE-2002437; Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) of Louisiana, 2021, Coastwide Reference Monitoring System-Wetlands Monitoring Data; US Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center; Ministero delle Infrastrutture e dei Trasporti – Provveditorato Interregionale alle OO. PP. del Veneto – Trentino Alto Adige – Friuli Venezia Giulia, through its concessionary Consorzio Venezia Nuova; Catalan Water Agency, Ebro Delta Monitoring Network Program. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.

PY - 2022/7/9

Y1 - 2022/7/9

N2 - Much uncertainty exists about the vulnerability of valuable tidal marsh ecosystems to relative sea level rise. Previous assessments of resilience to sea level rise, to which marshes can adjust by sediment accretion and elevation gain, revealed contrasting results, depending on contemporary or Holocene geological data. By analyzing globally distributed contemporary data, we found that marsh sediment accretion increases in parity with sea level rise, seemingly confirming previously claimed marsh resilience. However, subsidence of the substrate shows a nonlinear increase with accretion. As a result, marsh elevation gain is constrained in relation to sea level rise, and deficits emerge that are consistent with Holocene observations of tidal marsh vulnerability.

AB - Much uncertainty exists about the vulnerability of valuable tidal marsh ecosystems to relative sea level rise. Previous assessments of resilience to sea level rise, to which marshes can adjust by sediment accretion and elevation gain, revealed contrasting results, depending on contemporary or Holocene geological data. By analyzing globally distributed contemporary data, we found that marsh sediment accretion increases in parity with sea level rise, seemingly confirming previously claimed marsh resilience. However, subsidence of the substrate shows a nonlinear increase with accretion. As a result, marsh elevation gain is constrained in relation to sea level rise, and deficits emerge that are consistent with Holocene observations of tidal marsh vulnerability.

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ER -

Constraints on the adjustment of tidal marshes to accelerating sea level rise

Abstract

Bibliographical note

PubMed: MeSH publication types

UN SDGs

Publisher link

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