Computation of probability distribution of strength of quasibrittle structures failing at macrocrack initiation

Engineering structures must be designed for an extremely low failure probability, P_f < 10^-6. To determine the corresponding structural strength, a mechanics-based probability distribution model is required. Recent studies have shown that quasibrittle structures that fail at the macrocrack initiation from a single representative volume element (RVE) can be statistically modeled as a finite chain of RVEs. It has further been demonstrated that, based on atomistic fracture mechanics and a statistical multiscale transition model, the strength distribution of each RVE can be approximately described by a Gaussian distribution, onto which a Weibull tail is grafted at a point of the probability about 10^-4 to 10^-3. The model implies that the strength distribution of quasibrittle structures depends on the structure size, varying gradually from the Gaussian distribution modified by a far-left Weibull tail applicable for small-size structures, to the Weibull distribution applicable for large-size structures. Compared with the classical Weibull strength distribution, which is limited to perfectly brittle structures, the grafted Weibull-Gaussian distribution of the RVE strength makes the computation of the strength distribution of quasibrittle structures inevitably more complicated. This paper presents two methods to facilitate this computation: (1) for structures with a simple stress field, an approximate closed-form expression for the strength distribution based on the Taylor series expansion of the grafted Weibull-Gaussian distribution; and (2) for structures with a complex stress field, a random RVE placing method based on the centroidal Voronoi tessellation. Numerical examples including three-point and four-point bend beams, and a two-dimensional analysis of the ill-fated Malpasset dam, show that Method 1 agrees well with Method 2 as well as with the previously proposed nonlocal boundary method.