Abstract
Although evidence is increasing that climate shocks influence human migration, it is unclear exactly when people migrate after a climate shock. A climate shock might be followed by an immediate migration response. Alternatively, migration, as an adaptive strategy of last resort, might be delayed and employed only after available in situ (in-place) adaptive strategies are exhausted. In this paper, we explore the temporally lagged association between a climate shock and future migration. Using multilevel event-history models, we analyze the risk of Mexico-US migration over a seven-year period after a climate shock. Consistent with a delayed response pattern, we find that the risk of migration is low immediately after a climate shock and increases as households pursue and cycle through in situ adaptive strategies available to them. However, about 3 years after the climate shock, the risk of migration decreases, suggesting that households are eventually successful in adapting in situ.
Original language | English (US) |
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Pages (from-to) | 72-100 |
Number of pages | 29 |
Journal | Population and Environment |
Volume | 38 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Sep 1 2016 |
Keywords
- Adaptation
- Climate
- Migration
- Response pattern
- Rural Mexico
- Timing