Variety adaptation to future climate for wheat is important but lacks comprehensive understanding. Here, we evaluate genetic advancement under current and future climate using a dataset of wheat breeding nurseries in North America during 1960-2018. Results show that yields declined by 3.6% per 1 °C warming for advanced winter wheat breeding lines, compared with −5.5% for the check variety, indicating a superior climate-resilience. However, advanced spring wheat breeding lines showed a 7.5% yield reduction per 1 °C warming, which is more sensitive than a 7.1% reduction for the check variety, indicating climate resilience is not improved and may even decline for spring wheat. Under future climate of SSP scenarios, yields of winter and spring wheat exhibit declining trends even with advanced breeding lines, suggesting future climate warming could outpace the yield gains from current breeding progress. Our study highlights that the adaptation progress following the current wheat breeding strategies is challenging.
|Original language||English (US)|
|State||Published - Dec 2022|
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
Tianyi Z. appreciate Qiao Kang and Zhi Chen for their supports in data preparation. Tianyi Z. is funded by the National Key Research and Development Project of China (2019YFA0607402) and the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (2018104). X. Yang is funded by the 2115 Talent Development Program of China Agricultural University.
© 2022, The Author(s).
PubMed: MeSH publication types
- Journal Article
- Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't